中国：7 月工业利润环比增长，8 月 PMI 预览-China_ Industrial profits rose sequentially in July; August PMI preview

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese industrial sector, specifically analyzing industrial profits and revenues for July and August 2023. Core Insights 1. Year-over-Year Performance: - China's industrial profits decreased by 1.1% year-over-year (yoy) in July, an improvement from a 4.4% decline in June [5] - Industrial revenue increased by 1.0% yoy in July, compared to 1.5% in June [5] 2. Sequential Growth: - Sequentially, industrial profits rose by 3.2% non-annualized in July, down from 6.5% in June [5] - Revenue saw a slight decline of 0.3% non-annualized in July, contrasting with a 0.2% increase in June [5] 3. Sector Performance: - Downstream industries experienced a profit increase of 3.8% yoy in July, while upstream industries saw a profit decline of 13.5% yoy [5] - The broad manufacturing sector contributed to a 3.6 percentage points acceleration in industrial profit growth in July compared to June [5] 4. Raw Material Sector: - Profits in the raw material manufacturing sector surged by 36.9% yoy in July, a significant recovery from a 5% decline in June [5] - This growth aligns with rising domestic commodity prices, indicating the potential impact of government "anti-involution" policies [5] 5. Profit Margins: - Overall profit margins remained stable in July on a 12-month average basis, although upstream profit margins continued to lag behind downstream [5] PMI Forecasts - Expectations for August PMIs include: - NBS manufacturing PMI projected to remain flat at 49.3 [6] - RatingDog manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 50.0 from 49.5 in July, indicating slight export growth [6] - NBS non-manufacturing PMI anticipated to increase to 50.3 from 50.1 in July, driven by improvements in the financial services sector [6] Additional Considerations - High-frequency indicators, such as steel production, showed a marginal increase in August, suggesting some recovery in industrial activity [6] - Adverse weather conditions are likely to have continued disrupting construction activities in August [6] This summary encapsulates the key findings and forecasts regarding the Chinese industrial sector, highlighting both the challenges and potential recovery signals within the industry.