全球汽车、电动汽车：下一步动向，美国环境法规放宽，北美利润率有较大上行空间Global Automobiles_ Electric Vehicles_ What’s Next X_ US Environmental Regulations Easing; Major upside to N. America margins

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Global Automobiles industry, particularly the Electric Vehicle (EV) sector and the impact of changing environmental regulations in the US and Europe on traditional automakers [1][2][15]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Decline in Global BEV Penetration: Global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) penetration rates are expected to decline outside of specific regions like China, with estimates lowered to 25% for 2030 and 52% for 2040 [3][37]. 2. Easing of Environmental Regulations: US and European regulations are shifting towards easing, which will allow traditional automakers to maximize profits by selling a balanced mix of gasoline-powered vehicles and hybrid vehicles (HEVs) [2][15]. 3. Margin Improvement in North America: North American margins could improve by 2-3 percentage points, translating to an EBIT upside of US$15-22 billion, significantly impacting the combined estimated operating profits of highlighted stocks [2][23]. 4. Structural Shift to HEVs: The shift towards HEVs in the US is deemed structural, driven by updated product plans from OEMs, particularly from Japan and Korea, indicating a long-term trend rather than a temporary adjustment [10][48]. 5. Stock Recommendations: Companies such as Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Subaru, Hyundai, and Kia are expected to benefit from the easing regulations and the shift towards HEVs [11][13]. Additional Important Insights 1. Impact of the Beautiful Bill: The Beautiful Bill has eliminated civil penalties for non-compliance with federal fuel economy standards, providing automakers with more flexibility in their vehicle mix [16][21]. 2. Environmental Credit Impairment Risks: Traditional automakers may face potential impairment of environmental credits due to non-compliance with CO2 regulations, with Subaru already booking US$760 million in provisions related to environmental regulations [28][32]. 3. Consumer Preferences: Despite low gasoline prices, consumers are showing a preference for HEVs due to their fuel efficiency and performance, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [10][48]. 4. Regional Sales Trends: BEV sales are polarized, with significant growth in China (37% YoY) while the US and Europe are experiencing declines [54]. HEV sales in the US are strong, rising 24% YoY in June and 22% in July [57]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a significant transition in the automotive industry, driven by regulatory changes and shifting consumer preferences. Traditional automakers are poised to benefit from these changes, particularly through increased sales of HEVs, while BEV sales face challenges in certain markets. The insights provided suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the industry moving forward.