中国股票策略：中国五因子消费者活动 Z 分数 vs MSCI 中国-China Equity Strategy-China Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score vs. MSCI China

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Consumer Sector and its performance as indicated by the Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score compared to the MSCI China index [1][2]. Core Insights - Consumer Activity Decline: Consumer activity in China weakened further in July 2025, as evidenced by a decline in the Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score [7]. - Key Factors: The decline is attributed to softening in commodity retail sales and passenger car sales, indicating a lackluster consumer appetite [7]. - Economic Pressures: Deflation in wage growth and a softening property market are identified as significant drags on consumption [7]. - Stability in Certain Areas: Household loans, air passenger travel, and consumer catering remain relatively stable, with the latter two potentially benefiting from seasonal support during summer [7]. - Future Outlook: There are concerns that the payback of export front-loading and any delays in incremental fiscal stimulus may put additional pressure on consumer sentiment in the coming months [7]. Additional Important Information - Data Sources: The analysis is based on data from MSCI, CEIC, and Morgan Stanley Research, with the five factors considered being household loan year-over-year change, retail sales in catering, retail sales in commodities (excluding autos), passenger car retail sales, and air passenger traffic [4]. - Analyst Team: The report is prepared by a team of equity strategists at Morgan Stanley, including Laura Wang, Chloe Liu, and Vicky Wu [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the consumer sector in China.