中国市场观点- 8 个关键 A 股数据观察点Securities BrokerDealer - China-8 Key A-share data points to watch

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market in China, which is currently experiencing a rally. Investors are advised to monitor specific data points to gauge market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1] Tier 1 Data Points Velocity - Current velocity is at 560% in August, an increase from 467% in July. This level is comparable to 610-636% in October-November 2024 but below the 680-910% range seen in April-August 2015. High velocity indicates strong fund inflow and active trading, primarily from retail investors. A sustained velocity above 600% for 2-3 months may indicate an overheated market [3][4][6] Market Leverage - The current market leverage stands at 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July. This is still below the 7.0-9.8% range observed from December 2014 to June 2015. A leverage level above 7.5% could signal an overheated market [7][11] Turnover Mix - The turnover mix, which reflects margin financing-related turnover as a percentage of total turnover, is currently at 12%, up from 10% at the end of July. Historically, levels above 12-13% have prompted regulatory actions to cool down the market [13][14] Tier 2 Data Points Market Turnover - The average daily market turnover in the past week was RMB2.7 trillion, up from RMB1.6 trillion in July and RMB1.4 trillion in the first half of 2025. The peak turnover has already exceeded levels seen in 2015, indicating strong market activity [16][17] Margin Financing Size - The outstanding margin financing balance is at RMB2.17 trillion, an increase from RMB1.97 trillion at the end of July. This is close to the previous peak of RMB2.27 trillion in 2015 [20][21] Tier 3 Data Points New Mutual Fund Raising - Weekly new stock and mutual fund raising averaged RMB11 billion for the first three weeks of August, which is stronger than the RMB10 billion average year-to-date and indicates increased retail participation in a strong market [24][25] Tier 4 Data Points New Account Opening - The Shanghai Stock Exchange saw 1.96 million new accounts opened in July, consistent with the average of 2.1 million from January to June but significantly below the peak of 6.8 million in October 2024. This metric is lagging and may indicate future market participation if the rally continues [28][29] Deposit Movement - Recent trends show a deceleration in household deposit growth alongside an acceleration in deposits at non-bank financial institutions, suggesting a potential shift of funds from the banking system to the stock market [31][33] Conclusion - The A-share market is showing signs of strong activity, with key metrics indicating potential overheating. Investors should closely monitor velocity, market leverage, turnover mix, and new account openings to assess market conditions and make informed investment decisions [1][3][7][13][28]