Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) - 2025 H1 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group adjusted EBITDA increased by 120% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching ZAR 10 billion, and even excluding the 45X credits, it was still 51% higher [5][6] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 0.89 times, significantly below the market's earlier projections [6] - The total fair value of 45X credits is projected to increase to ZAR 12.6 billion by 2034, representing 32% of the acquisition value of the Stillwater operations [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - South African PGM operations produced 840,400 ounces, a 4% decrease year-on-year, with underground operations consistent at 750,000 ounces [59] - South African gold operations saw a 36% increase in average gold price received, reaching slightly more than ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 118% to ZAR 4.8 billion [65][66] - U.S. PGM operations produced 141,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,207 per ounce, reflecting a 41% decrease in costs compared to pre-restructuring [74] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold prices increased by 26% in the first half of the year, with average trading volumes reaching $329 billion per day, the highest for any half-year period on record [48] - PGM prices have rallied due to tight supply, with platinum prices outperforming driven by lower mine supplies [49] - Lithium market remains oversupplied, with average prices just over $9,000 per ton, affecting profitability for a third of lithium supply [56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on commodity diversification, particularly in gold and lithium, to stabilize earnings during volatile market cycles [25] - A multipolarity strategy is being implemented to enhance local supply of critical minerals, including a petition for a palladium trade remedy [8][26] - The company is investing in brownfield projects with low capital intensity to improve competitiveness and efficiency [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's increasing earnings trend and decreasing leverage, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [9] - The company acknowledges the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and tariff impacts on market demand, particularly in the U.S. [46] - Future growth is anticipated in the PGM and lithium markets, despite current pressures, with a focus on sustainable practices and stakeholder engagement [30][57] Other Important Information - The company has launched a petition against unwrought palladium imports from Russia, addressing unfair trade practices [78] - The acquisition of Metalex is expected to enhance the company's recycling footprint and contribute to earnings [43] - The company is assessing the Burnstone project for potential future development [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for dividend payments? - The company has decided not to pay dividends at the interim stage but will review this at year-end, with confidence in returning to dividend-paying territory if commodity prices remain stable [41] Question: How is the company addressing safety concerns? - The company reported three fatalities during the reporting period but noted improvements in safety frequency rates and a commitment to eliminating fatal incidents [21][22] Question: What are the expectations for the lithium market? - The lithium market is currently oversupplied, but the company remains bullish on long-term demand driven by electrification, forecasting a healthy CAGR for battery electric vehicle production [57]