工业气体：反内卷对工业气体的影响逻辑分析

Summary of Industrial Gas Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the industrial gas industry, particularly focusing on the impact of supply-side reforms and current anti-involution policies on the market dynamics and pricing of industrial gases such as liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - Supply-Side Reforms Impact: The previous round of supply-side reforms led to a 13% reduction in steel production capacity from 1.13 billion tons to 980 million tons, causing a contraction in industrial gas supply and a subsequent price increase due to demand stimulation [3][13]. - Current Market Dynamics: The current anti-involution policies may replicate similar effects as past reforms, potentially leading to a reduction in excess capacity in the industrial gas sector, contingent on demand support [1][24]. - Price Trends: Retail gas prices are at a ten-year low, with liquid oxygen prices dropping to around 350 RMB per ton, which does not cover cash costs. The market is undergoing an automatic exit process, with prices expected to stabilize and possibly recover moderately in the future [18][19][20]. - Demand from Solar Industry: The solar industry has significantly increased the demand for liquid argon, although the beta of this sector has weakened, leading to a sharp decline in argon prices [10][14]. - Pipeline Gas Market: The pipeline gas market is influenced by capital expenditures in the steel and chemical industries. There are signs of recovery in capital spending, which may lead to an increase in new contracts [9][21]. Additional Important Insights - Capacity Utilization Trends: From 2016 to 2018, the capacity utilization rates for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon increased from 60% to 64%-65%. However, from 2021 to 2023, these rates declined due to the pandemic and economic conditions [8][17]. - Market Structure Changes: The structure of gas demand is changing, with a decrease in the proportion of liquid oxygen used in metallurgy and an increase in demand from emerging industries like lithium battery materials [15][16]. - Future Price Projections: Future price increases for retail gases are expected to be moderate, with potential growth of 5% to 10% annually, which could significantly improve profitability for companies like Hangyang [20][23]. - Impact of Anti-Involution Policies: The anti-involution policies are expected to benefit companies closely linked to steel and chemical industries, such as Hangyang, Shandong Gold, and others, by reducing excess supply and improving market conditions [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the industrial gas industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between supply-side reforms, market dynamics, and future trends.