半导体_SPE_从 SPE 制造商视角看中国晶圆厂设备（WFE）前景-Semiconductor_SPE_ Chinese WFE outlook from SPE manufacturers‘ perspective

Summary of J.P. Morgan Semiconductor/SPE Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor production equipment (SPE) industry, particularly regarding the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market in China. - The outlook for WFE demand in China for calendar year 2025 is expected to show flat to single-digit growth year-over-year, which is more optimistic than the broader market expectations [1]. Key Insights - Local SPE Growth: The rise of local SPE manufacturers in China is gradually progressing, impacting non-Chinese SPEs depending on the type of equipment [1]. - Demand Consistency: There is a lack of strong consensus among SPE manufacturers regarding the outlook for Chinese demand, likely due to varying competitive environments across different equipment types [1]. - Front-End Companies: Demand from front-end companies in China has not declined as much as previously anticipated, indicating resilience in the market [1]. - Investment Expectations: Major players' investments, particularly in NAND technology, are expected to remain solid, with strong demand anticipated in areas with high exposure to major players and less competition from local SPEs [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Disco (6146): Sales to China accounted for 30% of total sales in April–June, up 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. Memory demand from China has been robust since last year, although shipments have stabilized somewhat [5]. - ULVAC (6728): Sales to China represented 34% of total sales in FY6/25, down 1 percentage point year-over-year. The company anticipates a recovery in investments in 8-inch SiC from major device manufacturers [5]. - Advantest (6857): Sales to China accounted for 15% of total sales in April–June, down 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company aims to increase market share in high-end testing systems despite local competition in low-end products [5]. - SCREEN Holdings (7735): Sales to China accounted for 33% of April–June SPE sales, down 5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company expects demand growth for DRAM and anticipates a sales weighting of 54% in July–September [5]. - Tokyo Electron (8035): Sales to China accounted for 39% of total sales in April–June, up 5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company revised down its FY2025 guidance due to cautious investment from emerging manufacturers in legacy nodes [6]. - Kokusai Electric (6525): Sales to China accounted for 45% of total sales in April–June, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter. The company expects demand growth in NAND technology to continue until FY2026 [6]. - Applied Materials (AMAT): Sales to China accounted for 35% of total sales in May–July, down 8 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company expects a decline in China sales weighting due to uncertainties [8]. - ASML: The China sales weighting was 27% in April–June, remaining flat quarter-over-quarter, with healthy demand expected [8]. - Lam Research (LRCX): Sales to China accounted for 35% of total sales in April–June, up 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by investments in leading-edge processes [8]. - KLA (KLAC): Sales to China accounted for 30% of total sales in April–June, up 4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. The company anticipates a lean period for Chinese investments in CY2025 and CY2026 [8]. - Teradyne (TER): Sales to China accounted for 16% of total sales in April–June, down 3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, affected by export restrictions [8]. Additional Observations - The competitive landscape is evolving, with local manufacturers gaining strength in memory and power applications, although they currently do not pose a significant threat in advanced technology areas [5][6]. - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism regarding the Chinese semiconductor market, with expectations of continued investment and demand growth in specific segments [1][6].