基本金属供需追踪_2025 下半年需求走弱迹象显现-Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker_ Signs emerging of weaker demand over 2H25

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Base Metals Supply & Demand Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the base metals industry, particularly copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel, with a specific emphasis on the Chinese market dynamics and global supply-demand trends. Core Insights and Arguments Copper - Signs of weaker demand are emerging for the second half of 2025, with a contraction in implied Chinese copper demand growth of -1.4% year-over-year (YoY) in July compared to +4.2% in June [3][4] - Chinese copper inventory levels remain below the 5-year average, with global visible copper inventory reaching nearly 600,000 metric tons (kmt) in August [3][4] - Smelter production in China remains resilient, with refined copper production up by 14% YoY in July, despite weak downstream purchases [3][4] Aluminum - Weaker demand in China is driving an upward trend in visible aluminum stocks, with apparent consumption down by -2% YoY in July [4] - Chinese refined aluminum production increased by 0.6% YoY to 43.8 million tons (Mt) in July, supported by increased smelter capacity [4] Zinc - There are no signs of improving end-use demand in China, with refined zinc output increasing by 23% YoY in July due to strong concentrate imports [5] - Demand from galvanizers remains subdued, impacting spot premiums negatively [5] Nickel - China's refined nickel imports surged to 38,000 tons (kmt) in July, the highest since December 2017, while global visible inventory reached approximately 320 kmt [6] - Stainless steel demand is reportedly starting to recover slowly, which may influence future nickel demand [6] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in China's monthly property completions, which fell by -30% YoY in July, contributing to the slowdown in copper demand [3] - The automotive sector in China remains resilient, with passenger vehicle production increasing by 13% YoY through July, driven by new energy vehicles (NEVs) [3] - The report notes a contraction in grid investment growth in China, which declined by -1% YoY in July, although year-to-date investment is still up by 12.5% [3] Conclusion - The base metals industry is facing a potential slowdown in demand, particularly in China, with various factors such as property market performance and industrial production influencing the outlook for copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. The data suggests a cautious approach to investment in these sectors as the market adjusts to changing demand dynamics.