中国房地产_涨势持续_（二）_脱离现实

Summary of Conference Call on China Real Estate Equities Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Real Estate sector, particularly the impact of recent policy changes and market dynamics on property sales and valuations [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Policy Stimulus: A stronger dose of stimulus has emerged to revive the property market, laying the groundwork for renewed sales momentum after a slowdown. Quality new home prices in tier-1 and tier-2 cities are expected to show modest growth in the next 12 months [2][3]. 2. Shanghai's Easing Package: On August 25, Shanghai introduced a comprehensive easing package, including the removal of restrictions on home purchases for eligible households outside the outer ring road. This policy primarily benefits quality developers with strong exposure in tier-1 cities [3]. 3. Capital Flows: There has been a strong capital flow into the Hong Kong stock market, rejuvenating interest in the real estate sector. The recent rally in the A-share market is expected to provide a fundamental boost to the residential market [4]. 4. Risks of Disconnection: Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns that the current rally may be disconnected from reality, leading to potential downgrades of certain stocks as the re-rating could be ahead of the base-case forecast [5][8]. 5. Preferred Stocks: The report highlights CR Land (1109 HK) and C&D International (1908 HK) as key picks, both showing clear signs of fundamental recovery. Additional supportive policies could further enhance their earnings potential [5][8]. Additional Important Insights - Sales Momentum: Policies and the wealth effect are anticipated to spur sales momentum after a temporary slowdown, although caution is advised regarding the sector's re-rating [8]. - Valuation Metrics: The report includes detailed valuation metrics for various property developers, indicating target prices and potential upside. For instance, CR Land has a target price of HKD 43.20, implying a 37.3% upside from its current price of HKD 31.46 [26]. - Market Dynamics: The report discusses the dynamics of home purchase restrictions and loan policies, which have been adjusted to facilitate home buying, particularly for families with multiple children [9][10]. Conclusion - The China real estate sector is experiencing a significant policy-driven recovery, with specific developers positioned to benefit from these changes. However, investors should remain cautious of potential disconnections between market performance and underlying fundamentals.