中国经济视角_劳动力市场走弱，政策持续支持

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese labor market and its dynamics, focusing on hiring trends across various sectors including services, manufacturing, and construction [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Softer Labor Market: The UBS Evidence Lab Labour Market Business Survey indicates a slight softening in hiring momentum in Q2 2025, with 41% of firms increasing hiring YoY and 37% QoQ, down from 43% and 42% in Q1 2025 respectively [2][7]. 2. Sector-Specific Trends: - Service Sector: Hiring intentions and salary growth have weakened, with 39% of service firms reporting increased hiring YoY, down from 46% in Q1 [12][22]. - Manufacturing Sector: Continued challenges from weak profitability and low capacity utilization have led to a decline in hiring momentum [12][22]. - Construction Sector: Surprisingly, hiring in the construction sector has picked up, likely due to robust infrastructure investment [12][22]. - Exporters: 41% of surveyed exporters reported increased hiring YoY, outperforming the average of 35% for all manufacturing firms, attributed to resilient export growth [13][17]. 3. Policy Support: 75% of firms received some form of policy support in Q2, with government subsidies for hiring college graduates being the most common. This support is particularly strong for exporters, with 91% receiving assistance [4][17]. 4. Mixed Macro Picture: The official unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in Q2 from 5.3% in Q1, but other indicators suggest ongoing pressures in the labor market, including a decline in household income growth and cautious consumer sentiment [5][25]. 5. Future Outlook: Expectations for Q3 indicate a continuation of the softening trend in the labor market, particularly in the service sector, while manufacturing and construction sectors show slightly more optimism [22][31]. Additional Important Insights - Wage Growth: There is a notable moderation in wage growth, with fewer firms reporting increases in monthly salaries compared to previous quarters [7][10]. - Consumer Confidence: Despite stable consumption growth, consumer confidence remains below pre-COVID levels, indicating a cautious outlook among households [30][40]. - Government Measures: The government has introduced additional measures to stabilize the labor market, including increased unemployment insurance refunds and subsidies for hiring young people [17][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the Chinese labor market, sector-specific trends, and the impact of government policies.