中国汽车半导体-智能化未来本土化 —— 中国自动驾驶半导体崛起在即

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Automotive Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the China Automotive Semiconductors industry, particularly in the context of autonomous driving (AD) and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). - The market for AD/ADAS SoCs (System on Chips) is projected to reach US$7.3 billion by 2029, growing from US$0.8 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of over 50% [10][17]. Key Insights Market Growth and Demand - The demand for AD/ADAS SoCs is expected to grow significantly, with a 56% revenue CAGR from 2024 to 2029 [5]. - Major Chinese OEMs are anticipated to capture more than 50% market share in the mid/high-end AD SoC market (100+ TOPS) by 2029, up from 3-5% in 2024 [4][12]. Horizon Robotics - Horizon Robotics is identified as a key beneficiary in the AD semiconductor market, with expected unit shipments growth of 37% from 2024 to 2029 and a market share of 30-35% among Chinese OEMs [6][66]. - The company has secured design wins for over 100 new vehicle models in 2024, bringing its cumulative design wins to over 310 [15]. - Horizon's price target is set at HKD 10.50, indicating a 35% upside potential [6]. Technological Advancements - The maturity of AI technology is enhancing the capabilities of autonomous driving algorithms, with a shift towards end-to-end architectures that improve efficiency and reduce errors [23][24]. - The computing power required for L3 or higher autonomy is estimated to be 500-1000 TOPS, with significant advancements in semiconductor technology supporting this demand [50][33]. Localisation and Self-Sufficiency - There is a pressing need for self-sufficiency in automotive semiconductors in China, with current localisation rates being low. The goal is to achieve 50%+ self-sufficiency by 2029 [54][58]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting the localisation of automotive chips, with initiatives aimed at increasing domestic chip adoption [62][46]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is intensifying as domestic companies narrow the technology gap with international leaders. Horizon Robotics is positioned well due to its integrated hardware-software capabilities and strong supply chain relationships [66][68]. - The average R&D expenses for domestic peers are significantly lower than Horizon's, which indicates a potential for improved efficiency in the future [15]. Additional Insights - The adoption of L2+ autonomous driving features is becoming a standard among major Chinese OEMs, with companies like BYD leading the charge by integrating advanced ADAS features into their mainstream models without price increases [48][49]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards more intelligent automotive solutions, with expectations of increased optical sensor usage from 4 units per vehicle in 2024 to 11-13 units by 2029 [13]. Conclusion - The Chinese automotive semiconductor market is on the brink of significant growth driven by advancements in autonomous driving technology and a strong push for local sourcing. Horizon Robotics is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, supported by its technological leadership and strategic partnerships. The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the future of AD/ADAS in China, with substantial opportunities for domestic suppliers.