2025-08-31 16:21Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Property Market in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR - Key Insights: The property market is experiencing mixed signals with leading indicators in Mainland China showing declines while Hong Kong sees strong tourist arrivals. Mainland China Property Market - Leading Indicators: - Centaline tier-1 cities' secondary asking price index decreased from 19.4 to 18.5, marking the lowest since May 2024 [4] - Centaline manager confidence index fell from 45 to 44, reaching a new low since October 2024 [4] - Sales Performance: - 60-city primary sales increased by 1% year-over-year, recovering from a previous decline of 8% [4] - Sales registrations in Beijing improved by 17% year-over-year following policy easing on August 7, but asking prices remained stable [4] - 12-city secondary sales year-over-year growth improved from 4% to 6% [4] - Market Dynamics: - The sector's share price rose by 3% last week, with Vanke outperforming at +9% [4] - Notable underperformers included Shimao (-14%) and A-Living (-7%) [4] - Investment Recommendations: - Top picks include CR Land, CR Mixc, and Jinmao, with potential upside in laggards like COLI, COPH, and Longfor [4] Hong Kong Property Market - Tourism Impact: - Tourist arrivals increased by 1% week-over-week to 1.24 million, the highest year-to-date, with a year-over-year growth of 19% [4] - Residential Sales: - Residential sell-through rates have slowed, with Blue Coast II achieving a 56% sell-through rate, lower than expected [4] - Home price index fell by 0.5% week-over-week [4] - Market Indicators: - Centa Valuation Index rose to 65.2, indicating banks are revising up valuations, which supports price stabilization [4] - Secondary transactions in top 35 estates increased by 52% week-over-week to 82 units [4] - Investment Recommendations: - Among landlords, top picks include Swire Prop, Hang Lung, Wharf REIC, and Link REIT; among developers, Henderson and Sino are favored [4] Additional Insights - Market Sentiment: - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with leading indicators suggesting potential challenges ahead [4] - Credit Views: - Vanke reported a quarterly net loss of RMB 6 billion, with net gearing rising to 90% in Q2 2025, but is not expected to default due to support from Shenzhen Metro [9] - Share Price Movements: - The property sector in Mainland China and Hong Kong showed varied performance, with some companies experiencing significant fluctuations in share prices [4][55] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the property markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.