深度研究：保险框架：险资中长期配置逻辑与趋势

Summary of Insurance Asset Allocation Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the insurance industry, specifically the asset allocation strategies of insurance funds in response to changing market conditions and regulatory frameworks [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Asset-Liability Matching: The core of insurance asset allocation is to match assets with liabilities, considering duration, cash flow, and cost-benefit analysis to mitigate interest rate risks and unexpected claims [1][3][4]. - Current Challenges: Insurance funds face a mismatch between the increasing duration of liabilities and the slower growth of asset duration, exacerbated by a rise in whole life insurance products [1][4]. - Improved Liability Costs: The reduction in liability costs, including lower pricing rates and improved costs for new policies, has decreased the expected return requirements on assets, favoring equity allocations [1][4]. - Regulatory Constraints: External constraints such as solvency ratios and asset allocation limits significantly influence investment behavior. The solvency ratio can range from a minimum of 10% to a maximum of 50%, affecting the allocation to equities [5]. - Policy Adjustments: Recent macroeconomic and market policy adjustments are expected to enhance the stability of A-shares, encouraging insurance funds to increase their equity allocations [5][6]. Future Trends - Increased Equity Allocation: There is an anticipated increase in the proportion of equity assets in insurance fund allocations, driven by a growing demand for long-term stable assets and favorable policy changes [6][8]. - Focus on High-Quality Stocks: Insurance funds are expected to prioritize long-term stable assets, particularly value stocks with stable Return on Equity (ROE) and cyclical stocks that fit their investment criteria [7][8]. - High Cost-Performance Sectors: Sectors with high cost-performance ratios (high ROE/PB) are projected to attract more attention from insurance funds, with a focus on stocks that demonstrate stable ROE over a three-year average [2][7][8]. Additional Important Points - Limitations of Traditional Strategies: Traditional strategies such as extending duration, credit downgrading, or investing in non-standard assets face challenges, including insufficient long-duration bond supply and shrinking market sizes for non-standard assets [6][7]. - Investment Logic: The investment logic of insurance funds is centered around achieving asset-liability matching, with a gradual shift towards increasing equity proportions in response to both policy encouragement and internal investment needs [3][8].