保险投资策略：重估保险配置价值

Summary of Insurance Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance sector is currently facing a valuation that reflects pessimistic expectations, with implied long-term yield assumptions at a low level of approximately 2%-3% [1][4] - New low-cost policies and increased equity allocation are expected to improve the cost of existing liabilities and stabilize investment yields [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The insurance sector has significant room for valuation recovery, as the risk of interest spread loss for leading insurance companies is very low even under cautious assumptions [1][5] - Valuation assessments should consider the value of existing business, as models indicate that the interest spread shows a trapezoidal trend, suggesting that a recovery to over one times is feasible in the medium to long term [1][5] - The concentration of the industry is expected to improve due to "reporting and operation integration" and cost control benefiting leading insurance companies [1][6] - The competition for savings and dividend products is primarily centered around investment yield, where leading companies have a clear advantage in research and investment [1][6] Investment Dynamics - New business has a minor impact on liability costs within the first year but significantly affects investment yields, particularly in equity asset allocation [3] - The valuation of the insurance sector has closely mirrored the performance of major stock indices like the CSI 300 over the past decade [3] Pricing and Cost Improvements - The pricing interest rate has been lowered from 2.5% to 2%, which, along with the promotion of new low-cost policies, will continue to improve the cost of existing liabilities, creating space for enhanced profitability for insurance companies [2][4] Recommendations for Individual Stocks - Recommendations include focusing on life insurance businesses with strong asset-side elasticity, such as Xinhua Insurance, China Life, and China Taiping [7][8] - Companies with a balanced approach of property and life insurance are also suggested for their unique advantages and potential for better profitability and growth [8] Additional Important Points - The insurance sector's demand remains stable, with a significant amount of insurance funds aligning with long-term investment definitions, which will lead to faster and more stable growth for leading companies [6]