煤市：8月供给库存双降，价格怎么看

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal supply side is tightening, with coal supply in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions decreasing by 2.3 percentage points week-on-week, and thermal coal supply down by 6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a contraction in supply that may support coal prices [1][3] - Current market coal prices are approaching long-term contract prices, with the market price for 5,500 kcal coal at 674 RMB/ton, close to the long-term contract price of 668 RMB/ton, suggesting limited downside for market coal prices [1][4] Key Insights - High Dividend Yields: Several coal companies have dividend yields exceeding 4%, such as China Shenhua (5%) and Shaanxi Coal (4.5%), indicating potential value for left-side positioning in the sector [1][5] - Downstream Demand Disparity: Electricity demand has decreased, with daily consumption remaining flat year-on-year; however, steel demand has increased by 10% year-on-year, while chemical coal usage has risen by 16% year-on-year [1][7] - International Risks: The unrest in Indonesia may impact the international thermal coal supply chain, necessitating close monitoring of developments [1][8] - Railway Freight Increase: On August 31, railway freight rates were raised, increasing downstream shipping costs by 10-20 RMB/ton, potentially up to 30 RMB for shipments to Yunnan, providing strong cost support for coal prices [1][9] Market Dynamics - Port Inventory: Coal inventories at major Chinese ports are nearing the five-year average, and prices are expected to rise when inventories fall below this average, especially with upcoming holiday supply and heating season procurement needs [2] - Recent Stock Performance: Last week, Anyuan Coal experienced the highest increase at 17%, driven by non-ferrous metal logic, while Shaanxi Coal saw the largest decline, presenting a potential buying opportunity [1][6] Future Outlook - Price Trends: Despite recent declines in port and production prices, downstream demand is expected to rebound post-parade, with power plants considering holiday supply factors and heating season procurement in November, which will support prices [1][10] - Inventory Levels: Current inventory data indicates that major Chinese port inventories are close to the five-year average, suggesting that prices may continue to rise when inventory levels drop below this average, presenting a left-side positioning opportunity [1][10]