投资者演示文稿：中国市场辩论- 北京和深圳的关键要点-Investor Presentation Asia Pacific China Market Debate Key Takeaways from Beijing and Shenzhen

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Market - Date: September 1, 2025 - Source: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights 1. Household Savings Reallocation Potential: There is a potential for Rmb6-7 trillion in household time deposits to be reallocated towards higher-risk investments, stemming from excess allocation during 2022-23 [3][4] 2. Market Sentiment: Initial signs indicate a heating up of the market, with margin financing as a percentage of A-share daily turnover surpassing levels seen in October 2024 [7] 3. Macro Challenges: Despite some positive narratives, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with continued growth slowdown indicated by the August PMI [12][14] 4. Structural Reforms Needed: The current fiscal system in China incentivizes overbuilding and overcapacity, necessitating reforms to realign macro targets and improve household consumption metrics [20][22] 5. "5R" Reflation Strategy: Incremental progress is expected by the end of 2025, focusing on rebalancing the economy through various policy measures, including a Rmb10 trillion fiscal package aimed at consumption [23] Additional Important Points 1. Market Dynamics: The margin transaction balance and its percentage of free float market cap remain stable, indicating cautious optimism among investors [9][10] 2. Policy Shifts: A more constructive narrative is forming around China's economic policies, influenced by evolving social dynamics and a pivot in policy direction since September 2024 [17][18] 3. Consumption Focus: There is a growing emphasis on consumption as a percentage of GDP, which may become a core policy metric in future economic planning [20] 4. Inflation and Price Index Trends: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to pick up, but the pass-through of upstream price gains remains limited, indicating potential inflationary pressures [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese market.