Summary of Global Shipbuilding Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global shipbuilding industry is experiencing a prolonged upcycle, expected to last until 2032, driven by decarbonization and the replacement of aging fleets [1][8][9] - The total addressable market (TAM) for global shipyards (excluding naval ships) is projected to be 441 million CGTs (compensated gross tonnage) with a value of US$1.2 trillion from 2025 to 2032 [8][22] Key Drivers of the Upcycle - Decarbonization: Stricter environmental regulations are anticipated to increase operating costs for conventional fuel vessels, making alternative fuel vessels more competitive by 2035 [11][22] - Replacement Demand: A significant portion of the fleet will exceed 20 years of age by 2029, necessitating replacements with greener vessels [9][21] Orderbook and Pricing Dynamics - The orderbook is expected to remain elevated, with a forecast of new ship orders increasing significantly from 2029 due to replacement demand and stricter regulations [10][12] - Newbuild prices are projected to remain high, with only a slight retreat of 12% from the peak in 2024 due to disciplined capacity and strong demand [10][25] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Chinese shipyards are expected to regain market share from 2026 onwards, despite short-term losses attributed to tighter capacity and higher US port fees for China-built vessels [12][14] - The market share of Chinese shipyards is projected to decline in 2025 but is expected to recover due to competitive pricing and capacity expansion [12][14] Earnings and Valuation - Earnings are expected to boom from 2025 to 2028, driven by high-value orderbooks and lower steel prices, despite a potential decline in profitability for container shipping and LNG carriers [10][15] - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its attractive valuation metrics, including the lowest price-to-book ratio and highest return on equity among peers [15][14] Future Projections - The global shipbuilding capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2% from 2025 to 2027, primarily driven by Chinese shipyards [13][25] - The orderbook cover years are projected to remain above 2.5 years, indicating a healthy backlog for shipyards [10][13] Conclusion - The global shipbuilding industry is positioned for a robust upcycle driven by environmental regulations and the need for fleet modernization. Investment opportunities are particularly favorable in Chinese shipyards, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding being a standout choice for investors looking for growth in this sector [8][15][12]
全球造船业：分两阶段的长期上行周期-Global Shipbuilding_ A prolonged upcycle with two stages