大中华半导体：美国出口管制豁免延长将延续中国半导体的乐观情绪-Greater China Semiconductors_ US VEU Removal To Extend Bullish China Semiconductor Sentiment

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Greater China Semiconductors - Key Event: US Commerce Department's announcement on August 29 to revoke Validated End-User (VEU) status for China subsidiaries of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel, effective January 1, 2026 [1][2] Core Insights - Impact of VEU Removal: The removal of VEU status will require affected companies to obtain export licenses for US-controlled equipment, complicating their capacity expansion and technology upgrades [1][2] - Opportunities for Chinese Companies: This situation is expected to limit China's access to foreign-made semiconductors, particularly memory chips, thereby benefiting local manufacturers such as YMTC and CXMT [1][3] - Positive Sentiment for Chinese Semiconductor Sector: The news is likely to enhance positive sentiment towards China's semiconductor sector, emphasizing the ongoing demand for localization [1] Company-Specific Insights - ASMPT: - Rated as a "Buy" due to expected benefits from increasing demand for AI-driven advanced packaging solutions [10] - Target price set at HK$85 based on a P/E ratio of 22x for 2026E, reflecting anticipated revenue and earnings recovery [11] - Shanghai Wanye Enterprises: - Rated as a "Sell" due to supply risks following Kingstone's inclusion on the US BIS Entity List [14] - Target price set at Rmb13.0, reflecting concerns over semiconductor revenue growth and profitability [16] Additional Considerations - Localization Trends: Chinese authorities may leverage the VEU removal to set localization targets for memory chips, similar to recent directives for AI chips [3] - Market Dynamics: The demand for semiconductor equipment from local vendors like ASMPT and Wanye is expected to rise as Chinese memory makers seek to fill the gap left by foreign suppliers [1][3] Risks - ASMPT Risks: Potential downside risks include a worsening semiconductor industry outlook and competition in the TCB market [12] - Wanye Risks: Risks include supply chain disruptions and the impact of US technology restrictions on advanced equipment development [15][16] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the implications of the US VEU status removal for the semiconductor industry in Greater China, along with specific insights into ASMPT and Shanghai Wanye Enterprises.