中国股票策略 - 跨国企业中国情绪指数（2025 年第二季度）因关税休战和政策宽松预期改善-China Equity Strategy-Global MNCs China Sentiment Index (2Q25) Improved with Tariff Truce and Policy Easing Expectations

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global MNCs China Sentiment Index for the second quarter of 2025, indicating a general improvement in sentiment among multinational corporations (MNCs) towards China, influenced by tariff negotiations and expectations of policy easing [1][2][12]. Core Findings 1. Sentiment Index Increase: The sentiment reading for MNCs rose by 3 points to 28 in 2Q25 from 25 in 1Q25. The percentage of MNCs with a positive outlook increased to 58%, up from 51% in the previous quarter [3][14]. 2. Sector Performance: Out of 12 sectors, nine showed a quarter-over-quarter improvement in sentiment. The Real Estate, Financials, and Industrials sectors experienced the most significant increases, while Utilities, Information Technology, and Energy sectors saw declines [5][27]. 3. Theme Analysis: The most notable improvements were observed in the Supply Chain (up 17 points), Cost (up 15 points), Trade/Tariff (up 12 points), and Multipolar Impact (up 10 points). Conversely, sentiment towards Labor and Regulations declined [4][12]. Regional Insights - Sentiment scores improved significantly in the EU and US regions, with increases of 29 points and 16 points, respectively. In contrast, Japan's sentiment dropped by 28 points [29]. Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment in China has shown signs of deterioration, prompting discussions about more accommodative policies. The State Council emphasized the need to stabilize the housing market and meet annual economic targets, indicating potential localized easing measures in the housing sector [12][13]. - The A-share market has rallied to new 10-year highs, driven by better liquidity and expectations of easing policies, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this rally [14]. Company-Specific Insights - US Industrials Company: Expressed optimism about a potential bottoming out in the Chinese market, attributing this to tariff negotiations [22]. - Brazilian Materials Company: Noted that the Chinese government achieved over 5% GDP growth in the first half of 2025, leading to expectations of mild economic incentives [22]. - US Consumer Discretionary Company: Reported a 12% increase in e-commerce sales, with Greater China organic sales growing by 2% [23]. - European Healthcare Company: Mentioned that while stimulus activity is increasing in China, consumer sentiment remains subdued [24]. Trade and Tariff Implications - An African Materials Company highlighted the persistent weakness in China's property markets, which has been somewhat offset by strong exports despite a 2% contraction in steel output [25]. - A European IT Company is on track to reduce the share of US products sourced from China from 40% to 10% by year-end, reflecting ongoing adjustments to tariff policies [25]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards China among global MNCs has improved, driven by easing tariff tensions and expectations of supportive economic policies. However, challenges remain, particularly in specific sectors and regions, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators and policy developments [12][14].