大摩：中国的AI GPU是炒作还是希望？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese semiconductor industry, particularly the development of domestic AI GPUs and the localization efforts in semiconductor manufacturing. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Driving Factors for Domestic GPU Shipments: - Four key factors are identified as driving the growth of China's domestic GPU shipments: - SMIC's 7nm process capacity and yield [1] - Chinese CSPs' AI chip sourcing strategies [1] - Nvidia's B40 chip performance and pricing [1] - Expansion of China's AI capital expenditures [1] - Morgan Stanley has an Overweight (OW) rating on TSMC and an Equal Weight (EW) rating on SMIC, indicating a positive outlook on these foundries [1] 2. DeepSeek's New Model: - The new V3.1 model of DeepSeek supports next-generation local AI chips, utilizing a new precision parameter, UE8M0 FP8, which enhances compatibility with various Chinese-made chips [2][3] - CAICT has released a list of local AI chips compatible with DeepSeek, including products from Huawei, Cambricon, Kunlun, Hygon, and MetaX [2] 3. Alibaba's AI Chip Development: - Alibaba has developed a new AI chip manufactured by a Chinese foundry, aiming for broader AI inference tasks, contrasting with previous chips made by TSMC [4] - Major municipalities in China, such as Shanghai, are targeting 70% domestic design or production of data center chips by 2027 [4] 4. Self-Sufficiency in Semiconductors: - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio is projected to rise from 24% in 2024 to 30% by 2027, driven by advancements in local chip production and demand stability [34][36] - Significant improvements in production capabilities for CPUs and GPUs are noted, particularly with Huawei's Ascend chips [37] 5. Market Trends and Performance: - Cambricon has announced a full-year sales guidance of Rmb5-7 billion, which is below market expectations [9] - Dosilicon experienced a stock suspension due to volatility, with a notable increase of 216% since the announcement of its G100 series GPU [9] - Smaller Chinese AI developers still prefer Nvidia's H20 over local GPUs for training due to better software support [9] Additional Important Insights - China's Semiconductor Equipment Imports: - In July 2025, China's semiconductor equipment imports reached US$3.4 billion, marking a 14% year-over-year increase [15] - The growth in imports is expected to continue, with a forecasted improvement in equipment spending in the second half of 2025 [15] - Performance of Key Stocks: - Notable outperformers include Espressif (+34.1%), GigaDevice (+32.2%), and Hua Hong (+27.0%), while underperformers include ACMR (-10.9%) and ASMPT (+1.7%) [22][23] - Future Events: - Upcoming semiconductor exhibitions in China are scheduled for September 2025, which may serve as platforms for showcasing advancements in the industry [33] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the advancements and challenges within the Chinese semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI chip development and localization efforts.