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我们怎么看医药中报
2025-09-04 14:36

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pharmaceutical Industry Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry experienced a profit decline in 2019 due to centralized procurement policies, but demand growth during the pandemic provided some relief. By the first half of 2025, segments such as innovative drugs, pharmaceutical commerce, and CXO showed positive growth, although overall profit levels continued to decline [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - Centralized Procurement Impact: The centralized procurement of medical consumables began in 2020, leading to negative revenue growth for two consecutive quarters by Q4 2023. However, Q1 2024 saw a return to positive revenue growth, indicating a stabilization in high-value consumables [3][4]. - Sector Performance: The chemical preparations sector saw significant revenue declines in Q3 and Q4 of 2023, directly linked to centralized procurement policies. The medical consumables sector has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2022, with in vitro diagnostics (IVD) expected to face challenges starting Q4 2024 [5][6]. - Future Outlook: The worst period for the pharmaceutical industry is believed to be over, with price issues being resolved. The price levels are relatively low compared to international markets, and a return to positive growth is anticipated in Q2 2025, potentially leading to an overall positive growth for the year [6][7]. Segment-Specific Insights - CXO Sector: The CXO sector is divided into demand-driven and supply-driven enterprises. The latter has benefited from the recovery of overseas markets, while domestic demand-driven companies are beginning to show signs of recovery, as evidenced by the performance of companies like Tigermed and Northstar [7][8]. - IVD Sector: The IVD sector is under significant pressure due to policy impacts, with a notable 20% decline in Roche's domestic luminescence business. The overall industry growth rate is approximately -15% [12][13]. - Medical Equipment: The medical equipment sector has faced continuous declines since Q4 2023, but signs of recovery were noted in the first half of 2025, with companies like United Imaging and Mindray showing varying degrees of recovery [17][18]. Additional Important Points - High-Value Consumables: The high-value consumables sector has undergone multiple rounds of centralized procurement, leading to stable or improved performance for many companies. The gross margin levels for high-value consumables have reached a bottom, with certain products like artificial crystals beginning to see the effects of procurement policies [19][20]. - Internationalization of Domestic Companies: Domestic high-value consumables companies are enhancing their international capabilities, with significant clinical data published and FDA certifications obtained for products aimed at the U.S. market [23]. - Market Competition: The competition in the luminescence industry is intense, particularly among companies outside the top three, which are resorting to price cuts to gain market share, resulting in significant declines in gross margins [13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within various segments.