全球宏观策略：做多黄金突破-Global Macro Strategy Buy breakout in gold, stop out of long WIG 20

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry Focus: Global Macro Strategy with a specific emphasis on gold and Polish equities (WIG20) Core Insights and Arguments 1. Gold Market Outlook: - The macro conditions are bullish for gold due to rising stagflation risks in the US, with leading indicators suggesting further labor market weakness and increasing CPI components [2][10] - Strong global gold ETF inflows were observed post-Jackson Hole, indicating a shift towards gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [2][10] - Spot gold has broken out of a four-month range, supported by strong ETF flows and performance during Asian trading hours, suggesting continued upward momentum [3][15] 2. Investment Strategy: - A new trade was initiated to buy gold spot at $3476.89 with a target of $3750 and a stop at $3330, risking $500k [8] - The strategy includes an overweight position in precious metals within the Global Asset Allocation portfolio, reflecting a bullish macro setup for gold [10][18] 3. Polish Equity Market: - The decision to close out the long WIG20 position was made due to negative domestic factors, including a rise in corporate tax on banks and the dismissal of Orlen's CFO, which undermined market sentiment [4][25] - The initial bullish outlook on WIG20 was based on strong corporate fundamentals and positive geopolitical developments, which have since deteriorated [25] Additional Important Content 1. Technical Analysis: - The correlation between gold returns and 10-year UST yields has shifted, indicating that gold may receive a flight-to-safety bid as inflation risks persist [12][16] - Historical backtesting shows that buying gold when gold mining stocks outperform has yielded better returns, reinforcing the current bullish stance on gold [18][21] 2. Market Dynamics: - The Fed's dovish stance and the potential for stickier inflation could lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge, especially as financial conditions remain loose [10][12] - The labor market's ongoing deterioration is expected to influence the Fed's policy decisions, further supporting gold prices [10] 3. Risk Considerations: - Risks to the gold trade include potential improvements in US labor data, which could impact gold's attractiveness as a hedge [8][10] - The Polish equity market faces significant headwinds from political and economic developments, necessitating a cautious approach [4][25]