中国新兴前沿领域-入境旅游零售：中国已做好准备-China's Emerging Frontiers-Inbound Travel Retail China Is Ready

Summary of Inbound Travel Retail in China Industry Overview - The inbound travel retail market in China is projected to grow from US$14 billion in 2024 to US$60 billion by 2034, representing a 15% CAGR [1][10][27] - By 2034, inbound travel retail is expected to account for 25% of China's total travel retail market, up from 10% in previous years [10][27] Key Drivers of Growth - Globally Known Brands: The presence of well-known brands and competitive pricing is attracting international tourists [4][10] - Improved Shopping Experience: The introduction of tax-free shopping (TFS) and instant tax refunds is enhancing the shopping experience for inbound tourists [5][10][31] - Policy Support: Recent policy changes are aimed at expanding tax-free shopping and improving infrastructure to support inbound tourism [26][48] Tax-Free Shopping Impact - The tax-free shopping market is expected to grow from <US$0.5 billion in 2024 to US$20 billion by 2035 [94] - The instant tax refund system was expanded nationwide in April 2025, significantly increasing the number of malls offering this service from 2 to 17 among the top 20 malls in China [5][34][98] - Retail sales with tax refunds in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai have shown remarkable growth, with increases of 160% and 75% YoY, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [35][103] Competitive Pricing - Chinese brands offer products at 20-50% lower prices compared to international markets, making them attractive to tourists [4][29] - Imported luxury goods in China are competitively priced, often similar to or lower than prices in key Asian markets [29][74] Market Segmentation - The inbound travel retail market is primarily driven by international tourists, excluding visitors from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, who are expected to contribute significantly to growth [27][45] - The duty-free market is also gaining traction, with projections of US$5 billion in spending by inbound tourists by 2035 [36] Implications for Retailers - Retailers, malls, and duty-free operators in China are expected to benefit the most from the growth in inbound tourism [6][40] - Companies like CR Land, Hang Lung Properties, and CTG Duty Free are identified as key beneficiaries [43] Risks and Challenges - Potential dilution of the Hong Kong retail market due to increased competition from mainland China [6][40] - The need for improved tax refund services and training for sales staff to facilitate the shopping experience for tourists [39] Conclusion - The inbound travel retail market in China is at a pivotal point, with significant growth potential driven by favorable policies, competitive pricing, and an enhanced shopping experience. Retailers and duty-free operators are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, although challenges remain in execution and market competition.