中国每周周报 -MXCN 上涨 2；北京举行阅兵；标普全球 8 月服务业 PMI 好于预期-China Weekly Kickstart_ MXCN rallied 2; Beijing held a military parade; S&P Global services PMI beat consensus in August

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the performance of the Chinese stock market, specifically focusing on the MXCN and CSI 300 indices, with MXCN rallying by 2% while A-shares corrected by 1% [1][1] - The State Council has issued opinions aimed at promoting the high-quality development of the sports industry and enhancing sports consumption [5][5] Market Performance - The headline RatingDog China Services PMI increased to 53.0 in August from 52.6 in July, indicating growth in the services sector [1][1] - 99% of all China listed companies and 98% of the MSCI China universe have reported earnings, with 1H25 earnings rising by 4% year-on-year [1][1] - The MXCN and CSI 300 forward P/E ratios are 12.7x and 14.3x, respectively, with EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 at 2%/16% for MXCN and 15%/12% for CSI 300 [9][9] Investment Flows - Southbound flows have reached US$130 billion year-to-date, indicating strong interest from international investors [4][4] - The gross allocation to China increased by 76 basis points month-to-date to 6.4%, approaching two-year highs [14][14] - The net allocation to China increased by 173 basis points to 8.6%, reflecting a positive sentiment among investors [16][16] Trading Activity - A-share market turnover has exceeded RMB 2 trillion for 18 consecutive days, with a turnover velocity reaching 15 times [27][27] - In August, 2.7 million new accounts were opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange, up from 2.0 million in July [19][19] - The margin trading balance has reached RMB 2.3 trillion, accounting for 2.2% of the listed market cap, indicating increased leverage among investors [21][21] Sector Performance - Health Care and Value sectors outperformed with gains of 4.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while IT and Growth sectors lagged with declines of 2.8% and 1.6% [8][8] - The report highlights that the Consumer Staples sector reported a 4% growth year-on-year, while the Energy sector saw a significant decline of 20% [32][32] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The central government has implemented interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service industry business loans for the first time, aimed at stimulating economic activity [1][1] - Recent meetings between President Xi and business leaders suggest a potential easing of policies towards private-owned enterprises (POEs) [36][36] Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs forecasts China's real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2024, 4.7% for 2025, and 3.9% for 2026, indicating a gradual slowdown [47][47] - The report also provides insights into global GDP forecasts, with the US expected to grow at 2.8% in 2024 [47][47] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the Chinese market appears positive, with strong earnings growth, increased investment flows, and supportive government policies. However, certain sectors are facing challenges, and macroeconomic forecasts suggest a gradual slowdown in growth rates.