如何理解保险行业

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is divided into life insurance and property insurance, each with distinct business models and financial metrics [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - Life Insurance Profitability: Life insurance companies derive profits from three main sources: mortality difference (死差), expense difference (费差), and interest difference (利差). Effective management of expected payouts and expenses can yield additional profits, but the cost of liabilities varies significantly among companies due to hidden components [1][3][4]. - Property Insurance Simplicity: Property insurance premium calculation is straightforward, equating to expected payouts plus additional fees. Companies with strong underwriting capabilities can achieve profitability before investments, making their business model more attractive to investors [1][5]. - Valuation of Life Insurance Companies: Evaluating life insurance companies requires the concept of policy value, which estimates future costs and revenues, incorporating assumptions about payouts, expenses, and investments to assess policy profitability [1][6]. - Embedded Value vs. Accounting Value: The embedded value system focuses on shareholder returns using DCF methods to discount future profits to net assets, while the accounting system emphasizes reported profits through accounting assumptions [1][7]. - Valuation Drivers: Key drivers for life insurance company valuations include the growth and realizability of policy profitability. New business value reflects growth expectations, and the high proportion of interest difference makes the sector sensitive to market fluctuations [1][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - Core Competitiveness: The core competitiveness of insurance institutions lies in the linkage between assets and liabilities, necessitating an analysis of their feedback relationship. Companies with high short-term asset yield elasticity also face higher liability costs [1][15][16]. - Liability Characteristics: Life insurance liabilities often have long durations (over 20 years) and include hidden costs. The management of these liabilities is crucial to avoid risks associated with high-interest liabilities [1][17]. - Asset Allocation Considerations: When allocating assets for life insurance companies, three factors must be considered: cash flow matching, cost-benefit matching, and duration matching. Balancing these factors is essential to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [1][18]. - Key Elements of Successful Insurance Companies: Successful insurance companies are characterized by long-term strategic vision from shareholders, capable management, and strong corporate governance, which collectively drive positive operational outcomes [1][19].