Summary of Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the wind power industry, particularly offshore wind projects in China, with expectations for concentrated approvals and construction starting from late 2023 to early 2024 [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments - Market Dynamics: The offshore wind power sector is anticipated to receive a significant boost from upcoming approvals and the introduction of deep-sea planning, which will positively impact the wind power segment [1][3]. - Price and Profitability: It is expected that the average selling price (ASP) and gross margin for domestic wind power machinery will recover in the second half of 2025, with a projected increase in bidding prices for onshore wind turbines by 5% to 10% from October 2024 to June 2025 [1][5]. - Installation Capacity: The total bidding volume for 2025 is estimated to be between 130GW and 140GW, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 20%, but still at a high level. The industry installation capacity is projected to be around 127GW in 2025, with a potential recovery in profitability for onshore wind companies by 2026 [1][7][8]. - International Orders: There is an expectation for record-high new overseas orders in 2025, with delivery cycles typically ranging from 2 to 3 years. This is expected to significantly enhance manufacturing profits for companies like Goldwind Technology, which has seen better-than-expected performance in its overseas business [1][9]. - Electricity Pricing: As the proportion of existing wind power projects increases, the average grid connection price is expected to slightly decline, impacting profit margins. However, companies remain optimistic about developing and constructing power station projects [10]. Additional Important Insights - Valuation Concerns: There have been discrepancies in the market regarding the valuation of wind power machinery companies, but the increasing share of manufacturing profits is expected to positively influence overall valuations in the coming years [11]. - Emerging Markets: Chinese companies are projected to dominate the onshore wind installation market in emerging countries, with an expected market share of 80% to 90% by 2030 due to competitive pricing and growing product recognition [3][20]. - Competitive Landscape: The wind power industry has seen increased concentration, with the top five companies holding a market share of 75% in 2024, up from 65% in 2020. This concentration is expected to reduce price competition and improve profitability [15][23]. - Raw Material Prices: The prices of black raw materials have slightly decreased, which could positively impact the profitability of machinery and component manufacturers in 2026 if the trend continues [16][17]. Conclusion The wind power industry in China is poised for growth, driven by upcoming project approvals, increasing international orders, and a recovering pricing environment. The competitive landscape is shifting towards greater concentration, which may enhance profitability for leading companies. The long-term outlook remains positive, particularly in emerging markets where Chinese firms are expected to gain significant market share.
风电主机投资机会深度解读
2025-09-07 16:19