美国即将降息，与之前预期的同与不同

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the impact of potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. on various sectors, particularly those related to tools, machinery, and capital goods [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Cuts and Investment Strategy - Anticipation of interest rate cuts is expected to benefit certain sectors, particularly tool companies and those with high leasing interest, such as engineering machinery and commercial kitchen equipment [1] 2. Inflation Transmission and Economic Pressure - Inflation is slowly transmitting downstream, causing pressure on both domestic and U.S. companies. The August employment wage data indicates minimal core service inflation pressure, suggesting that if demand improves in 2026, price transmission may alleviate current pressures [1][5] 3. Market Demand Outlook for 2026 - The improvement in market demand in 2026 is a key focus. Stable construction spending in the U.S. and suppressed equipment renewal demand are expected to recover quickly post-rate cuts. Manufacturing return and urban center construction will further boost demand, leading to better cash flow and profit expectations compared to 2025 [1][6] 4. Investment Focus Areas - Investment should target sectors less affected by inflation and more positively impacted by interest rate cuts, such as real estate and previously high-rate suppressed areas. These sectors are expected to show stronger upward elasticity in a recovering economy [7][10] 5. Global Economic Impact of U.S. Rate Cuts - U.S. rate cuts are expanding global policy space and promoting capital goods demand recovery in Europe. The U.S. and European markets are expected to positively influence capital goods, with certain companies potentially benefiting from improved demand and price transmission [8] 6. Sector-Specific Recommendations - Recommended sectors include tool companies, capital goods, oil and gas industry equipment, and technology-driven firms like PCB and power generation. Companies like 巨星科技 (Juxing Technology) and 川仪股份 (Chuan Yi Co.) are highlighted for their strong performance potential [9][11] 7. Investment Selection Criteria - Investment choices should prioritize certainty, especially in an uncertain U.S. economic environment. Focus on sectors benefiting from U.S. rate cuts, capital goods, and oil and gas industries, which are expected to experience elasticity release in 2026 [10] Additional Important Insights - The slow transmission of inflation and the impact of tariffs on profitability are significant concerns for companies. The current economic environment is challenging, but improvements in demand next year could alleviate some pressures [5][6] - Companies like 银都 (Yindu) and 浩洋 (Haoyang) are noted for having released risks, indicating potential for better future performance [10]