牛排危机：全球牛肉供应不足-What‘s at Steak_ There Is Not Enough Beef in the World

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Latin American Proteins, specifically focusing on beef and chicken markets in the US and Latin America [1][2] Core Insights 1. Beef Prices in the US: - Beef prices are expected to remain high due to resilient income growth and limited supply, with retail prices increasing approximately 15% since January 2024 [2][6] - A forecasted 5% year-over-year increase in beef prices for 2026 is supported by a projected decline in beef production by 2% year-over-year, potentially marking the lowest output in a decade [2][6] 2. Impact on Chicken Demand: - Higher beef prices are anticipated to drive increased demand for chicken, with a projected 4% year-over-year income growth supporting this trend [6][7] - Despite higher grain prices potentially squeezing chicken margins, strong price support is expected to maintain profitability above historical averages, with a projected EBIT margin of 10.5% for JBS's PPC in the US [6][7] 3. European and UK Beef Demand: - The EU and UK are emerging as significant markets for Latin American beef exporters due to structural declines in local production and resilient demand [7][8] - Beef prices in the UK have risen by 19% year-to-date, while prices in Europe have increased by 7% year-to-date, indicating strong demand for imports [8][10] 4. Brazil's Export Growth: - Brazil's beef exports to Europe and the UK have increased significantly, with total volumes up from 2.6% to 3.5% of total exports year-to-date [10][10] - The added demand from these regions should not be underestimated, as it represents a growing opportunity for Brazilian exporters [7][10] Additional Important Insights - Macroeconomic Correlation: - There is a historical correlation of approximately 90% between average income growth in the US and protein/beef consumption, indicating that economic conditions will continue to influence demand [2][6] - Production Challenges: - The cattle industry is facing structural challenges, including higher costs and competition from cheaper imports, which are contributing to a decline in local production in the EU and UK [8][15] - Market Dynamics: - The report emphasizes the importance of not overlooking the potential of the EU and UK markets in the context of global beef trade, which is often dominated by discussions around China and the US [7][8] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the beef and chicken markets, the implications of pricing trends, and the opportunities for Latin American exporters in the global market.