2025-09-08 04:11Summary of Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Bilibili Inc. (BILI) - Event: Asia Leaders Conference 2025 - Date: September 4, 2025 - Location: Hong Kong Key Points Industry and Company Insights - Gaming Pipeline: - Sanguo: An asymmetric strategy casual card game expected to launch during Spring Festival 2026, projected to achieve a large Daily Active Users (DAU) level in millions [3] - Trickcal RE:VIVE: A mobile anime RPG anticipated for release in 4Q25 [3] - Escape from Duckov: A single-player top-down looter-shooter PC game also expected in 4Q25 [3] - Revenue Forecast: Management anticipates a decline in gaming revenue by mid-to-high teens percentage year-over-year (yoy) in 2H25 due to a high base from the previous year [3] Advertising Trends - Vertical Performance: - Gaming: Solid performance in 1H25 with increased spending from major publishers; mini-games gaining market share [6] - Maternity & Baby: Fastest growth observed at several hundred percent yoy [6] - 3C Digital Products: Surged beyond expectations in 2Q25, driven by the June 18 shopping festival and national subsidies [6] - Healthcare & Wellness: Identified as a vertical with growth potential [10] - Advertising Growth: Management expects 20% yoy advertising growth for 2H25 [10] - eCPM Increase: Rose by 10% yoy in both 1Q and 2Q25, attributed to an expanding advertising client base and improved algorithms [10] - AI Utilization: Approximately 10% of video titles and 30% of video covers are produced using AI tools; plans to test AIGC personalized titles and covers in 2H25 [10] Community Engagement - User Engagement: - DAU increased by 7% yoy and MAU by 8% yoy in 2Q25 without additional sales and marketing expenses, driven by a focus on high-quality mid-to-long form video content [10] - Creator Monetization: Average revenue earned by Bilibili creators grew by 20% yoy in 1H25, with more diversified monetization options available [10] Financial Projections and Risks - Price Target: - 12-month DCF-based target price of US$26.3 (upside of 17.4%) and HK$205 (upside of 16.0%) [9][11] - Key Risks: - Potential slowdown in advertising due to macroeconomic factors or slower-than-expected monetization execution [9] - Weaker-than-expected game grossing and sustainability [9] - Risks associated with content costs and revenue sharing not decreasing as a percentage of revenue [9] Financial Metrics - Market Capitalization: $9.4 billion - Revenue Forecast: Expected to grow from RMB 26,831.5 million in 2025 to RMB 35,790.2 million by 2027 [11] - EBITDA Forecast: Projected to increase from RMB 2,265.9 million in 2025 to RMB 7,028.6 million by 2027 [11] - EPS Forecast: Expected to turn positive by 2026 with RMB 5.64 [11] Conclusion Bilibili Inc. is positioned for growth in both gaming and advertising sectors, with a strong focus on community engagement and creator monetization. However, potential risks related to advertising slowdown and game revenue sustainability could impact future performance.