2025-09-08 06:23Summary of the Expert Call on China's Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The expert call focused on the express delivery industry in China, particularly discussing recent price hikes and the competitive landscape [2][10]. Key Takeaways Price Hikes - Recent price hikes are expected to expand from Guangdong and Yiwu to other provinces by late September, with the potential to sustain for another year [3][10]. - The State Post Bureau may intervene in price competition, providing legal grounds to regulate operators competing below cost [3][10]. - Price hikes are anticipated to last until the Double-Eleven shopping festival in November, with a lower likelihood of further hikes [3][10]. - Uncertainties remain due to macroeconomic pressures and overcapacity in the market [3][10]. Impact on Listed Companies - Listed companies are benefiting from price hikes to varying extents; for instance, ZTO retains about one-third of the price increases, while other Tongda operators capture around half [4][10]. - There is a call for listed companies to share more benefits with network partners and couriers to maintain service stability amid rising operating costs [4][10]. Competition Dynamics - Long-term consolidation in the express delivery market is viewed as limited due to overlapping infrastructure and cultural challenges [5][10]. - Recent price hikes may improve the financial health of weaker players, delaying market exits [5][10]. - Listed companies agree that consolidation is likely slowed by price hikes, favoring short-term profits [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - ZTO Express (ZTO US, current price USD 18.19, target price USD 23) is expected to benefit from the broadening price hikes and easing competition [6][10]. - STO Express (002468 CH, current price RMB 16.54, target price RMB 20.70) is projected to benefit significantly from increased floored prices [6][10]. Additional Insights - The expert emphasized the need for network partners to receive a larger share of the benefits from price hikes to cope with increased operating expenses [4][10]. - The ongoing theme of competition in the express delivery market suggests that companies may need to adapt strategies to maintain profitability amidst regulatory changes and market dynamics [5][10].