北美医疗政策手册 2.0-Healthcare Policy Playbook 2.0

Summary of Healthcare Policy Playbook 2.0 Industry Overview - Industry: Healthcare - Region: North America - Event: MS Global Healthcare Conference (Sept. 8-10, 2025) [1] Key Takeaways US Public Policy Insights - Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals: Anticipation of sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with uncertain timing and severity. The Section 232 review is expected to conclude soon, initiated in April [3][17]. - Regulatory Changes: Proposed unilateral policy changes may lack enforceability, indicating that substantial changes typically require Congressional action. The Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) drug pricing policy is likely to face delays [3][18]. - Medicaid Cuts: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes delayed Medicaid cuts, primarily through work requirement changes, aligning with expectations. This could lead to approximately 10 million individuals losing access to federal health insurance by 2034 [3][22][32]. - Bipartisan Healthcare Package: Potential for Congress to pass a bipartisan healthcare package addressing the expiration of ACA subsidies, possibly retroactive to 2026 [3][24]. Implications Across Healthcare Sectors - Managed Care / Pharmaceutical Services: Managed Care Organizations (MCOs) may benefit from increased support for Medicare Advantage (MA) under the current administration, despite significant Medicaid funding cuts. The 2026 MA Final Rate Notice showed a surprising increase of +5.75% [4][27]. - Biopharma: Investor sentiment remains negative due to uncertainties regarding tariffs and MFN pricing. Companies that can drive growth through the end of the decade are favored, including ABBV, LLY, GILD, and REGN [9][10]. - SMID-Cap Biotech: Concerns over FDA personnel changes and headcount reductions are significant for investors. However, the impact on drug review timelines has been less severe than anticipated [9][11]. - Medical Technology: Tariffs are pressuring margins for companies exposed to them, with potential delays in FDA approval timelines due to HHS layoffs. Companies with manufacturing in tariff-affected regions may face margin pressures [9][12]. - Life Science Tools & Diagnostics: The policy landscape remains uncertain, with tariffs and NIH funding uncertainties weighing on sentiment. Preference is given to Precision Oncology and diversified tools as safer investments [9][12]. Regulatory and Legislative Developments - Medicaid Budget Cuts: The OBBBA includes significant cuts to Medicaid, with work requirements expected to decrease enrollment by approximately 5 million by 2034 [22][32]. - PBM Reform: Ongoing bipartisan discussions around PBM reform, with recent state-level initiatives and potential federal legislation still in flux [33][36]. - Audit and Compliance: The administration plans to expedite MA contract audits, which could improve transparency but also introduce uncertainty for MCOs [28][29]. Market Sentiment and Stock Implications - Healthcare Services: Stocks positively impacted by favorable Medicare policies include UNH, ELV, HUM, and CVS, while those negatively affected by Medicaid cuts include ELV, UNH, CNC, and MOH [13][29]. - Drug Distributors: Generally insulated from major changes in drug prices, with a shift towards fee-for-service models providing stability [41]. Additional Insights - Tariff Management: Current tariffs have been manageable for the services group, with companies implementing mitigation strategies [39]. - Most-Favored Nations Policy: The MFN drug pricing initiative remains uncertain, with drug distributors expressing that Congressional action is necessary for implementation [40][42]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the healthcare policy playbook, highlighting the evolving regulatory landscape and its implications for various sectors within the healthcare industry.