美国主题观点：股票回购带来的顺风逐渐减弱-US Thematic Views_ The fading tailwind from share buybacks

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the S&P 500 companies and their share buyback activities, highlighting trends and implications for investors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Record Buybacks in 1H 2025: S&P 500 companies repurchased shares at a record pace, totaling nearly $550 billion in the first half of 2025, with net buybacks at $494 billion after accounting for equity issuance [3][6][9]. 2. Stalled Buyback Growth: Despite the record buybacks, growth has recently stalled, with a 1% year-over-year contraction in buybacks during 2Q 2025, contrasting with previous quarters that saw an average growth of 20% [9][10]. 3. Declining Buyback Yield: The net buyback yield for the S&P 500 has decreased to 2.0%, the lowest level in two decades outside of recessions, indicating less support for share prices from corporate buybacks [3][14]. 4. Impact on Earnings Per Share (EPS): The decline in buyback yields is expected to result in less EPS accretion and slower EPS growth, with the historical boost from declining share counts diminishing [3][46]. 5. Future Buyback Projections: Forecasts suggest S&P 500 buybacks will rise by 12% in 2026 to $1.2 trillion, supported by healthy earnings growth and fiscal legislation boosting cash flows [3][33]. 6. Sector Performance: Stocks with robust buyback histories have outperformed the broader market, with the sector-neutral basket of S&P 500 stocks with the highest buyback yields returning 12% YTD [3][54]. 7. Buyback Aristocrats: A list of "Buyback Aristocrats," companies that have consistently reduced their share counts, has shown strong performance, outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 by an average of 3 percentage points annually since 2012 [3][60]. Additional Important Insights 1. Capex Spending: There has been a significant increase in capital expenditures (capex), which grew by 24% year-over-year in 2Q 2025, potentially crowding out buybacks as companies prioritize investments in AI and other growth areas [9][36]. 2. Payout Ratios: The buyback payout ratio has remained stable at 44% of earnings in 1H 2025, slightly above the 10-year average of 43% [21][24]. 3. Market Cap Growth: Since 2016, S&P 500 market cap has grown by 193%, outpacing earnings growth of 111% and buyback growth of 104%, leading to higher P/E ratios and lower buyback yields [18][23]. 4. Investor Implications: The declining buyback yield suggests a growing scarcity premium for stocks with large buybacks, as these stocks have historically outperformed [54][63]. 5. Valuation Trends: Despite strong performance, Buyback Aristocrats trade at a slight P/E discount compared to the median S&P 500 stock, indicating potential undervaluation [4][63]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the S&P 500's buyback activities, their implications for earnings growth, and the overall market environment.