美国关税影响追踪：过去一周整体疲软趋势持续，但数据仍具波动性-US Tariff Impact Tracker_ Generally Soft Trends Persisted This Past Week, but Data Remains Volatile

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of tariffs on global supply chains, particularly freight flows from China to the USA, highlighting ongoing volatility in trade data [2][5][9]. Core Observations - Freight Trends: Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 14% sequentially and 32% year-over-year (YoY) [1][4]. - Port Activity: Expected sequential imports into the Port of Los Angeles are projected to increase by 28% TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) for the week of September 12, but a modest decline of 2% is anticipated two weeks later [4][38]. - Rail Intermodal Volumes: Flat YoY performance was noted, following a decline of 5% and 1% in the previous weeks, indicating potential moderation in import trends [4][45]. - Ocean Container Rates: Rates increased by 23% sequentially after a prolonged decline, yet remain down 69% YoY [4][34]. Potential Risks and Opportunities - Peak Season Uncertainty: The upcoming peak season may underperform if shippers delay orders due to tariff uncertainties, which could negatively impact profit trajectories for the second half of the year [6][7]. - Restocking Potential: If consumer spending remains resilient, a significant restocking event could occur in 2026, benefiting freight flows and margins [6]. - Transport Stocks: The report suggests that transport stocks may face downward pressure if consumer demand does not increase, but truckers have been upgraded due to a lowered recession forecast [7][8]. Additional Insights - Volatility in Trade Data: Weekly data is subject to significant fluctuations, and trends should be assessed over a multi-week basis for better insights into tariff-related impacts [5][9]. - Intermodal Traffic: Recent intermodal traffic on the West Coast has shown flat to negative growth, indicating a lag in freight movement from ports to warehouses [45][47]. - Logistics Manager Index: The index indicates a contraction in downstream inventories, suggesting potential challenges for retailers [74]. Conclusion - The current landscape of freight and logistics is characterized by volatility and uncertainty due to tariff impacts, with potential for both risks and opportunities as the market approaches the peak season and beyond [6][7][8].