密尔克卫20250909

Summary of the Conference Call for Milky Way (密尔克卫) Industry Overview - The chemical logistics market is large but fragmented, with a high entry barrier. The national market size is expected to reach approximately 12.44 trillion yuan in 2024, with the top 100 companies accounting for only 3.6% of the market, indicating low industry concentration and high barriers to entry, which provides leading companies like Milky Way with the potential to consolidate the market [2][6][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The chemical industry entered a downturn in the second half of 2022, but positive signals have emerged on the supply side, including continuous negative growth in capital expenditure by listed companies, exit of overseas capacity, and domestic policy adjustments, which may catalyze growth in Milky Way's core integrated warehousing and distribution business [2][3][7]. - Milky Way has adjusted its business and customer structure to cope with the industry downturn, with non-chemical customers now accounting for 40% of its business, enhancing its risk resistance and optimizing its profit model [2][3][11]. - The company's own hazardous materials warehouse area has significantly increased from approximately 120,000-130,000 square meters in 2021 to over 300,000 square meters by 2024, with self-owned warehouses accounting for nearly half, employing a volume-based pricing strategy to counteract market price declines [2][11]. - Milky Way's projected profits for 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 640 million yuan and 740 million yuan, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) of 4.06 yuan and 4.66 yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.7% and 14.5%, primarily driven by growth in integrated warehousing and distribution and freight forwarding businesses [2][12]. Additional Important Insights - The company aims to reduce its debt-to-equity ratio after the peak of capital expenditure, planning to handle convertible bond projects through redemption or conversion and considering asset securitization to realize part of its assets and accelerate capital turnover [4][14]. - The distribution business is performing strongly, with expected revenue and gross profit increases of 30% and 38% in 2025, driven by the expansion into non-bulk categories such as fast-moving consumer goods, wind power resins, and compounded materials, with a projected revenue growth of 15% and gross profit growth of 17.5% in 2026 [4][18]. - Milky Way's market position is strengthened by the high entry barriers and the fragmented competitive landscape, with many competitors being regional small enterprises or large state-owned enterprises unwilling to expand [6][8]. - The chemical price index is currently at around the 20th percentile since 2012, indicating a cyclical low, with several positive supply-side signals, including a continuous decline in capital expenditure by petrochemical companies and significant overseas capacity exits [9][10]. - The company is exploring innovative business models to reduce reliance on heavy asset investments, such as management output projects in Hubei, and diversifying its customer base to include non-traditional sectors like new energy and smart manufacturing [15]. Future Outlook - Milky Way is well-positioned for future growth due to the increasing trend of consolidation among leading companies and positive changes on the supply side. The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities and robust development strategies, laying a solid foundation for future growth [8]. - The company employs a relative valuation method for target price estimation, referencing its average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 25 times over the past five years and comparing it with three comparable companies, projecting an average PE of 23 times for 2025 and 17 times for 2026 [19][20].