Commerzbank (OTCPK:CRZB.F) FY Conference Transcript

Commerzbank FY Conference Summary Company Overview - Company: Commerzbank (OTCPK:CRZB.F) - Date of Conference: September 09, 2025 Key Industry Insights - German Macro Environment: - Current GDP growth is flat at 0.2% for the year, with expectations to rise to 1.4% next year due to government investment packages totaling €1 trillion in defense and infrastructure [6][7] - Anticipated impacts on corporate loan demand and economic activity expected to materialize by early next year [8][9] Core Financial Insights - Net Interest Income (NII): - NII is projected to be €8 billion for the year, with a stable outlook despite a challenging interest rate environment [11][12] - The bank has managed to maintain a deposit beta of 39% in the first half of the year, with expectations for a moderate increase in the second half [13][14] - Cost Management: - Targeting costs of €6.9 billion for the year, with personnel costs being the largest component [16][17] - The bank is actively managing costs through sourcing, shoring, and process simplification [17][18] - Provisions and Credit Risk: - Cost of risk is expected to be €850 million or less for 2025, with a current low variance in the portfolio [25][26] - Positive economic developments from government investment packages are expected to support the portfolio [26] Strategic Outlook - Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE): - Current RoTE is 11% for H1, with a target of 9.6% for the full year and an ambitious target of 15% by 2028 [34][37] - The strategy focuses on income growth, strict cost management, and maintaining a capital ratio of 13.5% [39] - M&A Considerations: - The bank is focused on bolt-on acquisitions that enhance the business case rather than transformative deals [33][32] - M&A activity is expected to be in the range of 10-20 basis points of capital, aimed at supporting strategic goals [32] Additional Considerations - Polish Subsidiary (mBank): - mBank is expected to see a decline in provisions related to FX mortgage portfolios, with a strong economic outlook for Poland [41][43] - The bank is reformulating its strategy in response to potential new taxes, but does not anticipate significant changes to its overall strategy [43][44] Audience Sentiment - Majority of audience expressed concerns about M&A risk (44%) and weaker earnings [10][30] - Positive sentiment regarding potential upside risks linked to better earnings and capital distributions [28][30] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Commerzbank FY Conference, highlighting the company's financial outlook, strategic initiatives, and the broader economic context in which it operates.