以银行为鉴，如何展望火电的红利之路？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the thermal power industry and its comparison with the banking sector, focusing on profitability, dividends, and valuation trends [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Profitability Improvement: The thermal power industry has seen profitability improvements since the electricity pricing mechanism reform in 2021, driven by declining coal prices, reduced asset impairments, and business diversification. The capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance profitability stability, with most provinces increasing capacity prices to over 165 RMB per kilowatt per year by 2025-2026 [1][2][5]. - Dividend Trends: Dividends in the thermal power sector have shown volatility but are expected to stabilize and improve from 2023 onwards, influenced by the basic profitability and new energy expenditures. The need to monitor relevant policies and corporate strategies is emphasized [1][2][3]. - Shift in Business Model: The future business model of the thermal power industry is anticipated to shift from power generation to regulatory income, reducing reliance on cyclical products and enhancing profitability stability. This shift may lead to higher valuations [1][4][5]. - Investment Pressure Relief: In the second half of the year, investment pressures in wind and solar power are expected to ease, leading to a reduction in new installations by major power generation groups. This is likely to enhance the dividend capacity of thermal power platforms [1][6]. Additional Important Content - Valuation Levels: The current valuation of the thermal power industry is close to historical lows, with improvements in profitability stability and cost transmission capabilities. Despite a higher price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to historical lows, the overall investment attractiveness is noted to be better than in 2021 [7][8]. - Dividend Yield and Performance: The thermal power sector exhibits high dividend yields, with companies like Huaneng International showing strong performance. The expected dividend yield for 2025 is around 6.7%, potentially reaching 7.5% in 2026. In the A-share market, companies like Guodian Power are also noted for their high dividend yields [9][10]. - Company-Specific Insights: - Huaneng International is favored in the H-share market due to its high dividend yield and performance potential. - Guodian Power is preferred in the A-share market, with expected contributions from hydropower projects [14][15]. - Future Dividend Expectations: Increasing dividend ratios are anticipated to significantly enhance companies' dividend yield performance, with potential increases noted for companies like Huaneng and Guodian [12][13]. Conclusion - The thermal power industry is positioned for improved profitability and dividend stability, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics. Companies with strong dividend policies and stable business models are expected to perform well in the evolving energy landscape [1][2][4][6].