再读固态电池投资机会-正负极&集流体发展方向

Summary of Solid-State Battery Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The solid-state battery industry is characterized by significant potential in energy density, theoretically exceeding 500 Wh/kg. However, challenges such as low ionic conductivity of solid electrolytes and solid-solid interface issues hinder development. Currently, semi-solid batteries are in mass production, while solid-state batteries are still in the technical development phase [1][2][9]. Key Points on Positive Electrode Materials - Future trends in positive electrode materials focus on high specific capacity and high voltage platforms. High nickel ternary materials will dominate the market in the short term, while lithium-rich manganese-based and nickel manganese lithium materials are expected to emerge after 2030. The cost per watt-hour of lithium-rich manganese materials is projected to approach that of lithium iron phosphate [1][3][4][9]. Key Points on Negative Electrode Materials - Silicon-carbon anodes are anticipated to become mainstream before 2030, with a theoretical specific capacity of 4,200 mAh/g, which is ten times that of graphite. However, issues such as volume expansion can reduce coulombic efficiency and cycle life. Techniques like carbon coating and metal oxide coating can optimize silicon-based anode performance. In the long term, lithium metal anodes are expected to be used for batteries with energy densities exceeding 500 Wh/kg [1][5][9]. Challenges and Solutions for Lithium Metal Anodes - Lithium metal anodes face challenges including unlimited volume expansion, dead lithium formation, and dendrite growth, which can lead to short circuits. The ideal thickness for lithium metal anodes is 5-6 microns, while current mainstream processes often exceed 20 microns. Vapor deposition is a promising method to control deposition thickness, prevent dendrite formation, and enhance purity and bonding strength [1][6][9]. Current Trends in Current Collectors - Porous copper foil is favored for its fast charging performance, high energy density, and ability to suppress dendrite growth, making it suitable for solid-state batteries with lithium metal anodes. However, due to the corrosive nature of sulfide electrolytes, there may be a shift towards nickel-based or stainless steel current collectors. These alternatives can enhance overall system stability and optimize the balance between weight and performance [1][7][8][9]. Challenges of Sulfide Electrolytes - Sulfide electrolytes can react with traditional copper current collectors, leading to electronic conduction blockage and interface failure. Nickel-based and stainless steel current collectors are proposed as alternatives, with nickel forming a dense oxide layer to prevent corrosion and maintain structural integrity. Companies like Tohoku Steel are developing specialized iron foils for solid-state batteries, with mass production expected by 2027 [1][8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The solid-state battery industry is expected to see equipment changes, advancements in sulfide electrolytes, and the production of the first generation of solid-state batteries. By 2027, small-scale production of solid-state batteries is anticipated. Recommended companies include Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, Rongbai Technology, Danson Technology, and Zhenhua New Materials for positive electrode materials. For negative electrodes, companies like Tiantian Technology, Yinglian Co., Daoshi Technology, and Zhongyi Technology are worth monitoring as lithium metal anodes become mainstream [1][9].