地产 ：把握反映基本面的几个主要指标

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the real estate industry, particularly the performance of the secondary housing market and key indicators for market assessment [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - High-Frequency Indicators: Real-time transaction data from secondary housing agents is highlighted as the most effective high-frequency indicator for assessing market changes, outperforming the lagging nature of online signing data [1][3]. - Sales Performance: In August, real estate sales experienced a month-on-month decline compared to July, but year-on-year growth remained close to 10%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of approximately 15%. However, the fourth quarter may face year-on-year pressure due to a high base from the previous year [1][4]. - Monthly Data Tracking: Monthly sales data from the top 100 real estate companies and changes in secondary housing transactions are essential for tracking market trends. Notably, there is a significant surge in sales at the end of each month or quarter [1][5][6]. - Price Indicators: Changes in secondary housing prices are deemed more reliable for tracking market stability, as new housing supply can cause structural disturbances. The average transaction price provided by agents is crucial for accurate market assessments [1][7]. - Iceberg Index: The Iceberg Index is introduced to eliminate the impact of discrepancies between listing prices and transaction prices, reflecting true market price changes. Monitoring the premium space is also essential [1][8]. - Owner Confidence Index: This index, calculated based on the proportion of price increases among all price adjustments, serves as a forward-looking indicator. A ratio above 20% suggests potential price stabilization or increases, while below 20% indicates a downward adjustment [1][11]. - Sales Indicators: Key sales indicators include real-time transaction data and monthly sales trends from leading companies. The focus is on secondary housing prices and the owner confidence index, along with inventory metrics [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - Core City Land Market: The land market in core cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu has shown significant growth, with transaction amounts increasing by over 50% this year. Although the premium rate has decreased from 20%-30% to around 10%, it remains higher than the previous year [1][15]. - Land Transaction Data: National land transaction data indicates a 9% decline in transaction area but a 16% increase in transaction value from January to August 2025 [1][14]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the real estate industry's current state and key performance indicators.