全球财政：共振预期与长期困境 - 从海外政治风波说起

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]