2025-09-10 14:38Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - Industry: PC Semiconductors - Region: Greater China, Asia Pacific Key Points 1. Overall Demand: PC semiconductor demand remains soft, with expectations of a seasonal decline into Q4 2025. US analysts project a 2% year-over-year growth in PC shipments for 2025 [3][11] 2. MacBook Supply Chain: The MacBook-related component shipments are strong, indicating potential double-digit year-over-year growth in 2025 [3][11] 3. AMD's New Platform: AMD is expected to introduce the AM6 socket in 2027, which may lead to supply chain diversification. This transition could impact current suppliers [4][11] 4. Parade Technologies: - The likelihood of Parade becoming a new chipset supplier for AMD is considered low due to challenges with advanced nodes and new fab engagements. However, there may be multiple projects for Parade to pursue [5] - Parade's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, primarily due to higher Apple T-Con shipments. The price target for Parade has been increased to NT$747 [6][26] 5. ASMedia's Position: Forecasts for ASMedia remain unchanged, with expectations that any content increase will be offset by market share shifts [6] 6. Financial Projections for Parade: - Revenue estimates for Parade are NT$16,670 million for 2025, NT$17,991 million for 2026, and NT$21,583 million for 2027. Net income is projected to be NT$2,788 million in 2025 and NT$4,196 million in 2027 [49] - The gross margin is expected to be around 43% in 2026-2027 [52] 7. Valuation Methodology: The price target for Parade is based on a residual income model, with a medium-term growth rate raised to 9.8% from 6.5% due to better estimates from Apple T-Con shipments and AMD chipset share penetration [26][27] 8. Market Risks: Potential risks include unfavorable pricing environments for current suppliers, competition in the high-speed interface market, and the impact of US-China trade tensions [5][57] Additional Insights - Investment Sentiment: The overall sentiment towards the semiconductor industry remains cautious due to soft demand, but specific segments like MacBook components show resilience [3][11] - Future Growth Areas: There is an expectation for growth in high-speed interfaces and potential expansion into data center and automotive markets, driven by design wins [40] - Current Valuation: Parade's stock is trading at a P/E of 19x the new 2026 EPS, which is considered fair compared to historical averages [30] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the PC semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on AMD and Parade Technologies.