中国股票策略 - 2026 年预期高盈利增长 - 第十五次五年规划带来的催化剂-China_Equity_Strategy_High_Earnings_Growth_in_2026E_Catalysts_from_15th_Five-Year_Plan-China

Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Equity Market - Key Focus: 1H25 results, 15th Five-Year Plan, sector performance, and investment strategies Key Findings from 1H25 Results - Performance Metrics: Among 445 A and H share companies, 28% reported earnings beats, 40% in-line, and 31% misses [3][14] - Top Performing Sectors: - Transportation: 67% beats due to strong volume gains and cost control - Semi-conductor: 46% beats driven by revenue growth from tariff pull-ins and localization - Industrial: 40% beats attributed to margin expansion from lower commodity costs [14][15] - Underperforming Sectors: - Utilities: 55% misses due to weaker gas demand and renewable tariff cuts - Small Caps & Education: 45% misses linked to muted macro conditions - Hardware: 43% misses primarily from auto and surveillance demand [14][15] Economic Outlook for 2H25 - GDP Growth: PRC GDP grew by 5.3% in 1H25, exceeding the target of 5.0% for 2025 [21] - PPI/CPI Trends: PPI down 2.8% and CPI down 0.1% in 1H25, indicating challenges in industrial production prices [21] - Government Focus: Emphasis on supply-side reforms to boost CPI/PPI in 2H25, with key themes including economic development, technological innovation, social welfare, green development, and reform [4][20] Sector Recommendations - Upgrades: - Healthcare and Insurance: Upgraded to overweight due to aging population and increasing insurance needs [5] - Downgrades: - Telecom and Oil & Gas: Downgraded to underweight due to low profit growth and reduced price competitiveness [5] - Technology Sector: Increased weighting expected to benefit from the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] Index Target Revisions - HSI Targets: Revised targets for HSI are 26,800 (+7%) by end-2025, 27,500 (+6%) by mid-2026, and 28,800 by end-2026, driven by higher EPS growth [6] - Valuation Metrics: HSI's forward P/E at 10.3x and PB at 1.2x are in line with historical averages [6] Top Investment Picks - H-Share Top Buys: - Hengrui (Healthcare) - Sunny Optical - ASMPT - Removed from Top Buys: Anta, Huaneng Power, and BYD [7] Additional Insights - Consumer Sector: Anticipated shifts in consumer behavior and potential government pro-consumption policies in 2H25 [20] - Yield Plays: Domestic investors are focusing on yield plays amid cautious outlook for the PRC economy [22][23] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed performance in the Chinese equity market for 1H25, with significant sectoral variations. The outlook for 2H25 suggests a focus on supply-side reforms and strategic investments in healthcare, technology, and insurance sectors, while maintaining caution in telecom and oil & gas. The revised index targets reflect optimism for EPS growth driven by government initiatives and market dynamics.