2025-09-11 12:11Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Industry: Inbound Travel in China, specifically focusing on Beijing's tourism data post-COVID - Company: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, with analysts involved in the research Core Insights and Arguments 1. Growth Drivers: - Inbound visitation growth is driven by emerging markets, which are expected to remain the major growth driver [7] - Visa-free coverage expansion is a significant factor, with Europe recovering to above pre-COVID levels despite soft visitation from the UK, France, and Germany [7] 2. Tourist Breakdown: - In 2019, 76% of foreign visitors to China were from Asia, 13% from Europe, 8% from the Americas, 2% from Oceania, and 1% from Africa [10] - In 1H25, the breakdown of foreign tourists in Beijing showed a shift, with Asia accounting for 35%, Europe 31%, Americas 26%, Oceania 5%, and Africa 3% [13] 3. Recovery Status: - Different regions show varying recovery statuses compared to 2019: - Fully Recovered: Asia, Europe, Oceania, and Africa with growth rates over 30% YoY in 1H25 - Strong Recovery: Korea and Canada with growth rates over 40% YoY - Sluggish Recovery: USA, Japan, India, UK, France, and Germany with growth rates below 20% YoY [7] 4. Visitor Trends: - The acceleration of US visitation is noted as encouraging despite trade frictions and geopolitical tensions affecting overall inbound visitation [2] - Emerging markets are expected to continue driving growth, with specific countries like Vietnam, Mongolia, and Indonesia showing significant increases in tourist numbers [19] 5. Statistical Adjustments: - Beijing's post-COVID tourist statistics are not fully comparable with pre-COVID levels due to the inclusion of same-day travelers and the exclusion of certain visitor categories [7] Additional Important Insights - Geopolitical Impact: Trade frictions and geopolitical tensions have negatively impacted inbound visitation, but the recovery of US visitation is a positive sign [2] - Data Limitations: The analysis relies on Beijing's data due to the lack of national-level international visitor breakdown post-COVID, which may limit the comprehensiveness of the insights [1] - Future Outlook: The trends observed suggest a potential for continued growth in inbound tourism, particularly from emerging markets and regions with expanding visa-free access [7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the inbound travel industry in China, particularly focusing on the recovery trends and statistical insights from Beijing's tourism data.