大宗商品市场持仓与资金流向 - 贵金属推动全球大宗商品持仓价值接近年内高点-Commodity Market Positioning & Flows_ Precious metals propel global commodities open interest value towards YTD highs

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, particularly highlighting the performance of precious metals, base metals, energy markets, and agricultural commodities as of September 5, 2025 Key Points Global Commodity Market Trends - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 1.5% week-over-week (WOW), reaching approximately $1.53 trillion as of September 5, 2025, which is a rise of $22.84 billion WOW [2][6][9] - Contract-based inflows returned to a seven-week high of over $26.2 billion, with significant concentration in precious metals (~$12 billion WOW), base metals ($6 billion WOW), and agricultural markets ($5.4 billion WOW) [2][6] Precious Metals - The estimated value of open interest in precious metals surged by 8.5% WOW to $286 billion, driven by inflows into gold markets totaling $12 billion WOW [4][25] - Managed Money net length in COMEX Gold futures increased by 19.6k contracts to approximately 162k contracts net long, indicating strong bullish sentiment [4][14] - Central banks' net gold purchases were around 10 tonnes in July, with the People's Bank of China (PBoC) continuing a 10-month buying spree, although the pace of purchases has slowed due to elevated gold prices [4] Base Metals - The estimated value of open interest in base metals increased by 3.3% WOW to $180 billion, with net inflows of $6 billion, primarily in copper [4][25] - Visible inventory levels in China for copper are trending higher, indicating a slowdown in downstream consumption [4] Energy Markets - The estimated value of open interest in energy markets declined by 1.3% WOW to $624 billion, marking a three-week low [2][19] - Despite sanctions affecting nearly 20% of the global oil market, price impacts have been limited, with crude oil experiencing outflows of $5 billion WOW [2][19] - The European natural gas market is facing risks from low storage levels and competition from LNG imports, reinforcing a bullish stance for Q4 2025 [2] Agricultural Commodities - The estimated open interest value in agricultural markets decreased by 0.2% WOW to $326 billion, with inflows largely offset by weaker prices in soybeans, softs, and livestock [4][27] - China's soybean imports continued at a record high pace, primarily sourced from Brazil, amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [4] Price Momentum and Market Signals - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with increases in natural gas and precious metals, while declines were noted in energy and base metals [4] - The long-term momentum trading signal for COMEX Gold has increased, indicating a strong bullish trend [4] Investor Positioning - The estimated value of net investor positioning across global commodity futures markets increased by 17.3% WOW, reaching $144 billion, with significant gains in precious metals and energy markets [2][13] - Net investor positioning in precious metals rose by 23% WOW to $101.1 billion, while energy markets saw a slight increase to $1.5 billion [2][13] Additional Insights - The report highlights the divergent signals from businesses, indicating a material two-sided risk to global growth forecasts, with a near-term U.S. recession risk estimated at 40% [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks and market dynamics, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors, as they can significantly impact pricing and investor sentiment [2][4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the J.P. Morgan report on commodity market positioning and flows, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends and investor behaviors in the commodities sector.