中国股票策略 - 2025 年第二季度业绩回顾-MSCI 中国符合预期，A 股走弱-China Equity Strategy-2Q25 Earnings Review – MSCI China in Line, A-Shares Soften

Summary of MSCI China 2Q25 Earnings Review Industry Overview - The report focuses on the MSCI China and A-shares performance during the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) - It highlights the earnings results of various sectors within the Chinese equity market Key Findings MSCI China Performance - Earnings Results: MSCI China reported earnings in line with consensus forecasts, with a weighted surprise of +2.7% and a miss by number of companies of -2.7% [2][26] - Comparison to 1Q25: The results showed a similar trend to 1Q25, which had a miss of -3.8% by number of companies and a weighted surprise of +3.1% [2][26] A-Shares Performance - Earnings Results: A-shares missed consensus forecasts by number of companies by -13.8%, but were in line by weighted surprise at +0.2% [3][26] - Comparison to 1Q25: This represents a softening compared to 1Q25, which had a miss of -4.8% by number of companies and a weighted surprise of +3.3% [3][26] Revenue Performance - MSCI China and A-shares: Both indices missed consensus revenue estimates by number of companies but posted in-line results by weighted surprise [4][44] - Cost Control: The better revenue trends were attributed to improved cost-control measures and self-help strategies [4] Sector Performance - Strong Performers: - Communication Services and Financials led with solid earnings beats [5][26] - Pharma & Biotech and Materials saw strong returns with earnings upgrades, with gains above 20% [6] - Weak Performers: - Onshore Real Estate and Utilities posted net earnings misses by both weighted surprise and number of companies [5] Market Returns - Overall Returns: MSCI China delivered a 13% return from end-June to September 9, while MSCI China A onshore gained 15% [6][18] - Sector Returns: Notable sectors with returns above 20% included Consumer Staples Retailing, Pharma & Biotech, and Semiconductors [15][18] Earnings Revisions - Upward Revisions: Sectors such as Pharma & Biotech, Materials, and Tech saw upward revisions to 2025 consensus EPS estimates [6][16] - Downward Revisions: The Semiconductors sector experienced downward earnings revisions [6][16] Notable Contributors - Key Contributors to Earnings Beats: - Communication Services: Mango Excellent Media and Giant Network [28] - Consumer Discretionary: PDD, XPENG, and TCOM [28] - Financials: BOC and CCB [28] - Key Drags on Earnings: - Consumer Staples: China Feihe, China Mengniu, and Yanghe Brewery [28] - Energy: ShaanXi Coal and Yankuang Energy [28] Revenue Surprises - Aggregate Revenue Miss: Reported revenue missed consensus by number of companies by -12.5%, an improvement from -16.6% in 1Q25 [45] - Sector-Level Revenue Beats: Only Communication Services and Real Estate posted beats by number of companies [45] Conclusion - The earnings season for 2Q25 showed mixed results across sectors, with some outperforming expectations while others fell short. The overall market demonstrated resilience with positive returns, but challenges remain in specific sectors, particularly in revenue generation.