上调中国世界半导体贸易需求预测-Raising WFE demand forecast for China

Summary of Conference Call on China's Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market, highlighting the demand forecast and revenue growth for Chinese semiconductor companies. Key Points Demand Forecast - The WFE spending estimates for China in 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 12% and 11% respectively, now projected at US$37.55 billion and US$39.4 billion from previous estimates of US$33.5 billion and US$35.5 billion, indicating 1.5% and 4.9% year-over-year growth in those years [1][8] - Initial expectations for 2027 indicate a flat demand at US$39.4 billion [1] - Factors supporting the demand include: - Stronger-than-expected import demand for semiconductor equipment, with a 2% year-over-year increase [1] - Continued capacity expansion in 28nm and below node logic fabs, including companies like SMIC and HLMC [1] - Optimistic outlook from Chinese vendors regarding end-demand [1] Revenue Growth for Chinese Companies - Revenue growth estimates for three covered Chinese WFE companies have been raised to 39% and 24% year-over-year for 2026 and 2027 respectively, with combined WFE revenue expected to reach US$11.9 billion in 2027, implying a 30% domestic market share, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3] - The growth is attributed to improved technology maturity among domestic vendors and increasing demand from local fabs facing challenges in accessing US equipment [3] Company-Specific Insights - NAURA, AMEC, and ACMR are identified as top picks, with earnings forecasts for 2026-2027 raised by 1-4% to reflect a more optimistic view on China's WFE demand [4] - Price targets for these companies have been adjusted: - NAURA: from Rmb419.60 to Rmb470.00 [4] - AMEC: from Rmb235.00 to Rmb255.50 [4] - ACMR: from Rmb137.50 to Rmb163.50 [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for WFE in H225 is expected to be solid, with projections of US$18-19 billion driven by strong imports and domestic revenue growth of 30% year-over-year in the same period [2] - The anticipated growth in 2026 is supported by resuming solid growth in Chinese memory demand, particularly from CXMT and YMTC [2] Import Data and Capacity Expansion - China's total semiconductor production equipment (SPE) imports reached US$18 billion in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by capacity expansion in Guangdong Province [10] - The import demand from Shanghai accounted for 25% of total imports, indicating significant regional activity [10] Financial Performance - Major Chinese WFE companies reported a combined revenue of Rmb26.6 billion in H125, reflecting a 32.8% year-over-year increase [13] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local companies gaining market share due to geopolitical factors affecting access to foreign technology [3] - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the sustainability of WFE demand in China, countering skepticism from some investors [1][2] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the WFE market in China, highlighting growth opportunities and the competitive landscape among domestic companies.