铜_ 需求依然强劲，但全球库存上升；伦敦金属交易所价格年内上涨 13%-Copper Dashboard_ Demand remains strong, but global inventories rising; LME price up 13% YTD

Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - Industry: Copper Mining - Current Trends: Strong demand persists despite rising global inventories; LME copper price has increased by 13% year-to-date (YTD) to $4.46/lb [1][1][1] Key Takeaways 1. Global Copper Production: - Increased by 7.4% YTD as of May, with notable strength in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Chile, while Peru showed weakness [1][1][1] - Global copper inventories rose approximately 160,000 tons from around 440,000 tons in late June to about 600,000 tons currently, nearing 2023/24 levels [1][1][1] 2. China's Copper Market: - Refined copper production in China rose by 11% YTD through July, matching a 12% increase in demand, although July demand saw a 4% decline year-over-year (YoY) [1][1][1] - Downstream purchases in China are reportedly weak, with onshore premiums declining from earlier in the year [2][2][2] 3. Market Dynamics: - High-frequency data presents mixed signals: - Positive indicators include falling TC/RCs (treatment and refining charges), rising cathode premiums, and increasing smelter operating rates in China [1][1][1] - Negative indicators include a decline in LME net speculative positioning returning to five-year average levels [1][1][1] 4. Price and Inventory Trends: - Despite rising inventories, the LME copper price has increased, with forward curves in contango, the highest in the past year [1][1][1] - The current LME copper price is $4.46/lb, reflecting a strong market position [1][1][1] 5. Equity Preferences: - J.P. Morgan continues to favor Capstone Copper (CSC) in Australia and Antofagasta in EMEA, both rated as Overweight [1][1][1] Additional Insights - Future Outlook: - The copper supply-demand balance is expected to remain in marginal surplus for 2025/26, but a positive long-term outlook is maintained [2][2][2] - Analyst Ratings: - Various companies in the copper sector have been rated, with BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore receiving Overweight ratings, while Southern Copper is rated Neutral [4][4][4] Conclusion - The copper industry is experiencing strong production and demand, particularly in China, despite rising inventories. The market remains optimistic about long-term prospects, with specific equities highlighted for investment.