Summary of the Conference Call on NAND Industry and AI Impact Industry Overview - The NAND industry is experiencing a resurgence due to the increasing demand from AI inference applications, with an estimated incremental Total Addressable Market (TAM) of US$29 billion by 2029 [1][13][22]. - The AI NAND market is projected to account for 34% of the global NAND market by 2029, with AI-related NAND usage expected to reach 431EB, representing 20% of global NAND bit shipments [13][22]. Key Insights - The demand for high-speed, high-capacity storage solutions, particularly QLC eSSD, is becoming critical for AI applications, as it meets the requirements for randomized I/O access [12][21]. - A NAND shortage is anticipated to emerge in the second half of 2026, driven by a combination of AI infrastructure deployment and consumer demand weakness [14][24]. - Major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are already in discussions with suppliers for large orders of AI NAND and nearline SSDs, indicating a shift in procurement strategies [14][24]. Market Dynamics - The NAND industry has been in oversupply since 2022, but a more balanced supply-demand dynamic is expected moving into 2026 [14][24]. - The introduction of nearline SSDs is expected to take market share from HDDs, with a potential 5% market share shift translating into an 8% NAND shortage in a bullish scenario [13][23]. Stock Recommendations - SanDisk has been elevated to a Top Pick with a price target raised from $70 to $96, reflecting confidence in its ability to capitalize on the AI-driven demand [12][41]. - Other recommended stocks include KIOXIA and Samsung Electronics, which are expected to benefit significantly from the growth in the NAND sector [15][27]. - Within Greater China, module makers Phison and Longsys are favored due to better NAND pricing tailwinds [15][27]. Financial Projections - The 2026 EPS estimates for key recommended stocks are projected to be 26% higher than consensus estimates, indicating a bullish outlook on the AI NAND growth story [30][41]. - SanDisk's EPS is expected to reach $8.64 next year, compared to consensus estimates of $6.11, suggesting that the stock is undervalued given the potential for improved earnings [41][48]. Risks and Considerations - There is caution regarding potential inventory corrections in early 2026, as demand may not fully overshadow the PC/mobile markets in the near term [47]. - The NAND industry is facing challenges from conservative capital expenditure plans and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning China [35][44]. Conclusion - The NAND industry is poised for significant growth driven by AI applications, with key players like SanDisk, KIOXIA, and Samsung Electronics positioned to benefit. The anticipated shortage in 2026 and the shift towards eSSD solutions present compelling investment opportunities, although caution is warranted regarding potential market corrections and geopolitical risks.
全球科技 - 闪存(NAND)-人工智能时代终于降临闪存领域-Global Technology-NAND – AI Era Finally Comes to NAND
2025-09-11 12:11