从“资产荒”到“负债荒”——银行负债与债市

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The banking industry is currently experiencing a "liability shortage" in Q1 2025 due to a large issuance of special refinancing bonds and a tightening of liquidity by the central bank, which has increased the burden on the banking system and limited the scale of market lending, leading to higher funding rates [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments - Liability Structure: The primary component of the banking liability structure is deposits, typically exceeding 70%, with fluctuations between 73% and 75%. Interbank liabilities account for over 10%, and interbank certificates of deposit have increased to about 4% to 5% [2]. - Response to Deposit Challenges: When facing difficulties in deposit absorption, banks often issue interbank certificates or borrow from the central bank. The issuance of interbank certificates has increased, reflecting a strong willingness to raise prices [3]. - Impact of "Liability Shortage": The "liability shortage" in Q1 2025 is attributed to the significant issuance of special refinancing bonds and the central bank's liquidity tightening, which has limited the market's lending capacity and affected leverage enthusiasm [5]. - Future Outlook on Bank Burden: It is expected that banks will not face significant burden pressures in the future, as there are no new plans for special refinancing bonds and the central bank's liquidity stance has stabilized [6]. - Deposit Migration Phenomenon: The phenomenon of deposit migration is limited in scale and primarily reflects changes in the liability structure rather than causing significant funding gaps. The impact on equity markets and other financial products is positive but not decisive [7][8]. - Current Liability Costs: The overall liability cost for large banks is approximately 1.65%, with deposit costs between 1.45% and 1.5%. The 10-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.8%, providing better space for bank allocations [9]. - Investment Contributions: In 2025, banks have relied on selling old bonds from OCI and AC accounts to compensate for reduced trading profits, which has become a crucial method for maintaining revenue contributions [10]. - Future Selling Needs: There is an ongoing need for banks to realize gains from old bonds in the third and fourth quarters, especially as the low-interest-rate environment continues to pose challenges [11]. - Expansion and Risks: The overall expansion of bank balance sheets is positive but may slow down. Some banks under operational pressure may consider shrinking their balance sheets [12]. - OCI Account Trends: The proportion of OCI accounts in the banking system has gradually increased, allowing banks greater flexibility in trading without directly impacting current profits [13]. - Performance of Different Bank Types: Large commercial banks, as primary dealers, play a crucial role in policy execution and market stabilization, making their financial investment actions significant for analysis [14]. Additional Important Insights - The current market conditions and uncertainties may affect banks' allocation capabilities, and the flexibility of banks compared to non-bank institutions allows for better management of valuation fluctuations [9]. - The migration of deposits is influenced by various factors, including customer demographics and market conditions, with different groups showing varying levels of willingness to shift funds [8].