全球宏观展望与策略：全球利率、大宗商品、货币与新兴市场-Global Macro Outlook and Strategy_ Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Global Macro Outlook, focusing on US Rates, International Rates, Commodities, Currencies, and Emerging Markets [3][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Risks to the front end of the yield curve are biased lower due to labor market weakness, while concerns about Fed independence are pushing long-end rates higher [3][15]. - The first Fed cut is projected for September 2025, with expectations of four sequential cuts, bringing the funds rate target range to 3.25-3.5% by 1Q26 [12][11]. - Anticipated 2-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to 4.20% by the end of 2025 [12][11]. International Rates - Developed market (DM) curves have steepened, particularly in the US, amid renewed focus on the long end of the curve [4][36]. - The European policy easing is losing momentum, impacting the overall yield curve dynamics [36]. Commodities - The oil market is expected to face a significant surplus, with price forecasts remaining unchanged for now due to uncertainties surrounding China's stock build [8][88]. - The European natural gas market is entering winter with historically low storage levels, leading to a bullish stance for 4Q25 and a price target of 42 EUR/MWh [8][93]. - Copper prices are anticipated to face bearish pressure, potentially dropping to $9,000/mt due to unwinding demand from the US and China [8]. Currencies - The US dollar has not weakened despite recent yield curve steepening, attributed to domestic growth factors [56][58]. - Concerns regarding Fed independence and fiscal excesses are influencing the dollar's performance, with expectations of a bearish outlook [58][63]. - Fiscal policy is expected to be a key differentiator for FX, with the hypothesis that fiscal easing supports currencies in low-debt countries [63][59]. Emerging Markets - The resilience of global growth and downside risks in the US are supporting emerging market (EM) local markets [8]. - A recommendation to stay overweight (OW) in EM FX and local rates, while maintaining a market weight (MW) in EM corporates and underweight (UW) in EM sovereigns [8]. Additional Important Insights - The US Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, prompting coupon auction size increases starting in May 2026 [19][22]. - The passage of the OBBBA is projected to lead to a surge in T-bill issuance, with an estimated $529 billion of net T-bill issuance expected in the current quarter [25][23]. - Demand from foreign investors remains weak, with expectations of a shift towards more price-insensitive demand in the Treasury market [29][31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various markets.