中国利率：9 月流动性会收紧吗-China rates_ Will liquidity tighten in September_

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Asia ex-Japan rates market, particularly analyzing the Chinese financial market and the liquidity conditions in September 2023. Core Insights and Arguments - The 7-day repo fixing has gradually increased to 1.50%, aligning with historical patterns from July and August but remaining lower than the rates observed in September 2023 and 2024 [5][5][5]. - Despite the maturity of RMB 1.25 trillion in Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) this week, liquidity is not perceived as tight [5][5][5]. - The 7-day repo fixing typically rises in the latter half of the month due to factors such as tax payments, increased Local Government Bond (LGB) supply, and month-end funding requirements [5][5][5]. - Expectations are set for the 7-day repo fixing to rise to a range of 1.55% to 1.70% in the upcoming weeks, with the spread to the 7-day OMO rate widening to 15-20 basis points in September, compared to 11 basis points in August [5][5][5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is anticipated to ensure adequate funding, especially considering potential bond fund redemption flows, and may conduct 14-day OMOs leading into the "Golden Week" holiday [5][5][5]. - The market is questioning whether the PBoC will allow liquidity to tighten further if stock market sentiment remains strong [5][5][5]. Strategic Recommendations - The analysts maintain a Dec-IMM 1s3s flattener trade with a conviction level of 3/5 and recommend paying in 5-year swaps with a conviction level of 4/5 [5][5][5]. - Long-end rates are influenced not only by liquidity but also by equity market performance, macroeconomic data, and the ongoing anti-deflation narrative [5][5][5]. Additional Important Information - The report is produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., and the analysts involved are Clair Gao and Albert Leung [6][7][6]. - The document includes disclaimers regarding the accuracy and reliability of the information provided, emphasizing that it should not be construed as investment advice [17][18][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the current state and expectations of the Asian rates market, particularly in China.